Biogen potential trading opportunity into year-end, says BMO Capital
BMO Capital hosted a call with an expert on Alzheimers that may present a trading opportunity in Biogen (BIIB) shares as we approach sola Phase 3 and aducanumab titration data expected at year end. The expert said evidence supports the amyloid hypothesis of AD outweighs the evidence that undercuts it, but suggested that patient selection and trial design/execution key to demonstrating benefit to support regulatory approval. He estimated that Lilly's (LLY) EXPEDITION-3 trial has a ~60% probability of success, with Biogen's aducanumab greater than70% as long as rates of ARIA-E can be reduced with titration. Analyst Ian Somaiya believes positive Phase III Sola data could provide a positive read through to aducanumab and results in Biogen shares trading up 20-25%. If Sola misses, aducanumab's ability to clear beta amyloid oligomers & plaques and in our opinion a better trial design could limit downside in shares to approximately 10%. Somaiya rates Biogen a Market Perform with a $304 price target.