The 154k September ADP rise
The 154k September ADP rise only slightly undershot our 160k private payroll estimate with a 170k total payroll increase to leave little indication of the risks for Friday's jobs report, after a trimming of the August ADP rise to 175k from 177k that narrowed the gap to the 126k private payroll rise in that month. the mining-depressed 3k September goods employment uptick included a disappointing 6k factory drop alongside an 11k construction job increase, alongside the largely expected 151k service employment gain. The "as reported" ADP figures have run 18k/month weaker than private payrolls since the October 2012 methodology change, though analysts've seen a 25k average overshoot thus far in 2016. Analysts saw an ADP overshoot of 51k in August, undershoots of 46k in July and 66k in June, and prior overshoots of 174k in May, 9k in April and 33k in March. for a discussion of the risks for Friday's jobs data.