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For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook

For the U.S. jobs data impact on the quarterly outlook, the monthly hours-worked figures posted Q3 growth of 1.3%, after a lean 0.8% rate in Q2 but oddly firm rates of 1.7% in the prior two quarters. Hours-worked growth undershot our 2.5% Q3 GDP growth estimate after earlier overshoots. Analysts expect a 1.8% growth rate for productivity in Q3, after a 0.6% rate of decline in Q2 that is raised to a 0.1% drop in the next report. Productivity and GDP underperformed hours-worked growth over the two quarters ending in Q1, and all three measures were weak in Q2. In Q3, it appears that GDP and productivity are bouncing, though now analysts have restraint in growth for hours-worked. Payroll growth is moderating since a relatively firm 2014, given just a 178k average monthly payroll gain thus far in 2016 after average increases of 229k in 2015 and 245k in 2014.


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