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GPS

Gap

$24.72

1.94 (8.52%)

, AEO

American Eagle

$17.60

0.3 (1.73%)

09:50
10/07/16
10/07
09:50
10/07/16
09:50

Gap rallies after September report shows strong response to Old Navy brand

Shares of Gap (GPS) rallied in morning trading after the retailer said same-store sales increased 4% at its Old Navy brand in September, despite its namesake brand again posting lower comparable sales. Following the company's September sales release, analysts were mainly upbeat on the stock. OLD NAVY AGAIN A BRIGHT SPOT IN SEPTEMBER: Gap said on Thursday after the market close that total company same-store sales fell 3% in September versus a decline of 1% last year. Comparable sales were up 4% during the month in Old Navy, in line with last year, following a 1% increase in comp sales last month. At the same time, comp sales at the Gap Global brand declined 10% versus flat last year and comparable sales at Banana Republic were down 9% after falling 10% last year. Total net sales for the five-week period fell 2% to $1.43B from $1.46B last year. DISTRIBUTION CENTER FIRE: Gap said that a late August fire at its Fishkill distribution center in New York hurt its same-store sales by about 3 percentage points and the retailer expects its comp sales will be hurt by a similar amount in October. The company sees a "negative" impact to fourth quarter comp sales as a result of the fire. In a recorded message discussing September's sales results, Gap said that the fire destroyed about 12M units, primarily for the Gap brand. The company said September margins "actualized significantly higher than previously forecasted," which more than offset the negative effects from lost sales and logistics costs related to the fire. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Mall-based retailers, including Gap, have been hurt by the increasing popularity of fast-fashion retailers like Zara, Forever 21 and H&M, as well as an increase in online shopping. Earlier this year, Gap said it would take steps to better position the company for improved business performance and that it was identifying opportunities to streamline its operating model to be "more efficient and flexible." At September's Goldman Sachs retailing conference, CEO Art Peck said the company was "seeing a change in consumer buying patterns," noting a shift to online as well as "the lack of a need to refresh our closet." At the time, Peck said the consumer is "healthy," but "she is not in fashion apparel in the way that she has been over the last several years." ANALYST REACTION: This morning, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell upgraded Gap to Hold from Sell and said that while price competition with fast-fashion rivals will continue, the company's near- to medium-term setup is "more favorable." Trussell sees easing compares over the next few months as well as an improved apparel backdrop. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik raised his price target for Gap shares to $32 from $30 following the retailer's September results, noting that Old Navy trends are accelerating while a bottom is setting in at Gap's namesake brand. The analyst said downside is "fairly limited" and believes there is "sizable upside potential." However, UBS analyst Michael Binetti said that while September margins were higher than expected, he is cautious on the company's ability to pull back on promotions to drive a comp inflection. Binetti also said that Gap will close some stores this week amid Hurricane Matthew, which will further impact October sales. Binetti reiterated his Sell rating and $16 price target on Gap shares. PRICE ACTION: Gap is up about 12% to $25.53 in morning trading. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other apparel and mall based retailers trading higher this morning include American Eagle (AEO), Nordstrom (JWN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Urban Outfitters (URBN).

GPS

Gap

$24.72

1.94 (8.52%)

AEO

American Eagle

$17.60

0.3 (1.73%)

JWN

Nordstrom

$54.59

0.65 (1.21%)

ANF

Abercrombie & Fitch

$16.15

0.18 (1.13%)

URBN

Urban Outfitters

$35.86

-0.19 (-0.53%)

  • 23

    Oct

GPS Gap
$24.72

1.94 (8.52%)

08/19/16
MSCO
08/19/16
NO CHANGE
Target $21
MSCO
Underweight
Gap valuation stretched adn upside limited, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger said Gap's valuation appears stretched and upside is limited. The analyst said even the most bullish expectations for $2.25-$2.30 in 2017 implies zero earnings growth since 2012, with less scope for cuts in marketing expense, wage inflation, and other SG&A inflation. Greenberger has an Underweight rating on Gap and a $21 price target on shares.
10/07/16
UBSW
10/07/16
NO CHANGE
Target $16
UBSW
Sell
Gap distribution center fire impact not done being felt, says UBS
UBS analyst Michael Binetti noted Gap's distribution center fire in August had a significant impact on September sales and that the company estimates that the fire will be a 3 point drag to October same-store sales as well. Additionally, Binetti said Florida, Georgia and South Carolina account for 10% of the company's North America store count and that Gap will close some stores amid this weekend's hurricane, further impacting October sales. The company mentioned that merchant margins were higher than expected which should offset any negative earnings impact, however. The analyst is cautious of the company's ability to pull back on promotions to drive a comp inflection and reiterated his Sell rating and $16 price target on Gap shares.
10/07/16
DBAB
10/07/16
UPGRADE
Target $24
DBAB
Hold
Gap upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell upgraded Gap to Hold saying the company's near- to medium-term setup is more favorable amid easing compares over the next few months and an improved apparel backdrop. Trussell raised his price target for the shares to $24 from $18.
10/07/16
JEFF
10/07/16
NO CHANGE
Target $32
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies sees 'sizable upside potential' in Gap shares
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik raises his price target for Gap shares to $32 from $30 following the retailer's September results. Trends are Old Navy are accelerating while a bottom setting in at The Gap, Konik tells investors in a research note. The analyst sees an "asymmetric risk/reward" for shares with downside "fairly limited" and "sizable upside potential." He sees easy comparisons as a near-term catalyst and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
AEO American Eagle
$17.60

0.3 (1.73%)

08/15/16
STFL
08/15/16
NO CHANGE
STFL
American Eagle shares likely to react positively to Q2 results, says Stifel
Stifel analyst Richard Jaffe expects American Eagle's 2H16 EPS to beat expectations, driven by its "compelling and innovative merchandise assortment." The analyst thinks that the stock can reach $22 as investors become more upbeat about its outlook. He keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
08/15/16
08/15/16
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley with analyst Linda Bolton Weiser saying she left a meeting with new Chief Executive Officer David Taylor with greater confidence in the company's improved organic sales growth. 2. Valeant (VRX) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho. 3. AAC Holdings (AAC) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James with analyst John Ransom ting favorable valuation, still high short interest, and good visibility on 2017 EBITDA, which is $8M above Street estimates. 4. American Eagle (AEO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with analyst Tiffany Kanaga saying denim strength should drive upside to estimates in the second quarter while easier compares should keep the momentum going in the second half of 2016. 5. Bright Horizons (BFAM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Andrew Steinerman saying the company is entering a period of above-average margin expansion. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
08/18/16
RHCO
08/18/16
NO CHANGE
RHCO
American Eagle weakness unwarranted, says SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Pamela Quintiliano believes that American Eagle reported "solid" Q2 results, and she is upbeat about the company's new fashion offerings. The analyst raised her price target on the shares to $22 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.
09/30/16
RHCO
09/30/16
NO CHANGE
RHCO
American Eagle new CFO positive, says SunTrust
After American Eagle hired Bob Madore as its new CFO, SunTrust analyst Pamela Quintiliano calls him "an industry veteran" who has "an extensive background." She says that the company is doing well in the fall, and keeps a $22 price target and Buy rating on the shares.
JWN Nordstrom
$54.59

0.65 (1.21%)

09/30/16
GUGG
09/30/16
INITIATION
Target $60
GUGG
Buy
Nordstrom coverage assumed with a Buy at Guggenheim
Guggenheim analyst Robert Drbul coverage assumed Nordstrom with a Buy and a $60 price target.
08/12/16
KEYB
08/12/16
NO CHANGE
KEYB
Nordstrom price target raised to $65 from $52 at KeyBanc
KeyBanc says that Nordstrom reported "strong" Q2 results, while the company's set up is "increasingly favorable." The firm thinks that the stock offers one of the best risk/reward ratios in its softlines/apparel coverage. It reiterates an Overweight rating on the shares.
08/15/16
RBCM
08/15/16
NO CHANGE
RBCM
Nordstrom results 'encouraging,' says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Brian Tunick says he was "encouraged" by Nordstrom's better than expected Q2 results, and he is upbeat on the company's sales initiatives. However, he keeps a Sector Perform rating on the stock, citing valuation.
08/12/16
UBSW
08/12/16
NO CHANGE
Target $58
UBSW
Buy
Nordstrom price target raised to $58 from $44 at UBS
UBS raised its price target on Nordstrom to $58 from $44 following Q2 results. The firm cited improved Rack trends, raised guidance, and improved visibility. UBS reiterated its Buy rating on Nordstrom shares.
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch
$16.15

0.18 (1.13%)

09/14/16
SBSH
09/14/16
UPGRADE
Target $44
SBSH
Buy
Macy's upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Citi analyst Paul Lejuez upgraded Macy's (M) to Buy saying an attractive free cash flow and dividend yield makes the risk/reward attractive at current levels. While the long term structural challenges to department stores are unlikely to go away, Macy's is "doing the right things for the business," Lejuez tells investors in a research note. He calls the retailer "one of the stronger horses in the race" and sees upcoming quarterly results as potential catalysts. Lejuez keeps a $44 price target for Macy's shares. The analyst points out that Macy's 4.4% dividend yielding 4.4% trails only Kohl's (KSS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) among the retailers he covers. Macy's closed yesterday down 59c to $34.68.
10/05/16
KEYB
10/05/16
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
Abercrombie & Fitch downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
10/05/16
KEYB
10/05/16
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
Abercrombie & Fitch downgraded to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
As previously reported, KeyBanc analyst Jessica Schmidt downgraded Abercrombie & Fitch to Sector Weight from Overweight after the firm's proprietary promotional database and channel checks suggest that promotions at its Abercrombie and Hollister brands are higher than at this time last year. The elevated promotions add to other headwinds, including the fact that the teen space is "overstored" and faces soft consumer demand and weak tourism, said Schmidt.
10/06/16
10/06/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman with analyst David Tamberrino saying he sees incremental risk to Tesla's business related to management's willingness to deploy capital for M&A, and he believes that any delay in the company's new Model 3 launch will be detrimental to shares. 2. JPMorgan (JPM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Sandler O'Neill with analyst Jeffery Harte citing relative share outperformance. 3. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc with analyst Jessica Schmidt saying the elevated promotions add to other headwinds, including the fact that the teen space is "overstored" and faces soft consumer demand and weak tourism. 4. American Express (AXP) downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura with analyst Bill Carcache saying the combination of weaker than expected revenues and higher than expected expenses will weigh on the shares. 5. Lowe's (LOW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Cleveland Research. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
URBN Urban Outfitters
$35.86

-0.19 (-0.53%)

09/07/16
WOLF
09/07/16
UPGRADE
Target $43
WOLF
Outperform
Urban Outfitters upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
Wolfe upgraded Urban Outfitters to Outperform with a $43 price target citing share gains, improving fundamentals, sustained promotional discipline, and sustained positive comps.
09/06/16
JEFF
09/06/16
NO CHANGE
Target $45
JEFF
Buy
Urban Outfitters added to Franchise Picks list at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik added Urban Outfitters to his firm's Franchise Picks list and upped his price target for the shares to $45 from $40. The company is positioned to benefit from an improving fashion cycle and changes in footwear trends, Konik tells investors in a research note. He keeps a Buy rating on Urban. The analyst removed Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) from the Franchise Picks list.
08/22/16
08/22/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Workday (WDAY) downgraded to Mixed from Positive at OTR Global and to Hold from Buy at Needham with Needham analyst Scott Berg citing industry checks that indicate second quarter billings upside will be limited and Financials sales remain challenging. 2. Garmin (GRMN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James with analyst Tavis McCourt citing valuation. 3. Urban Outfitters (URBN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman with analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann saying Urban has successfully turned around the UO brand and is near-peak operating performance, leaving less room for meaningful improvement from here. 4. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow with analyst David MacGregor citing balanced risk/reward as shares are up 35% since mid-first quarter. 5. Madison Square Garden (MSG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with the firm citing valuation and lack of near-term catalysts. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
08/22/16
GSCO
08/22/16
DOWNGRADE
Target $36
GSCO
Neutral
Urban Outfitters downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Goldman analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann downgraded Urban Outfitters to Neutral and raised its price target to $35 from $33. The analyst said Urban has successfully turned around the UO brand and is near-peak operating performance, leaving less room for meaningful improvement from here.

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$9.44

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$41.64

0.65 (1.59%)

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$62.45

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$24.04

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$33.47

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CalAtlantic

$34.80

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BZH

Beazer Homes

$13.01

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MTH

Meritage Homes

$40.40

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Lennar

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Owens Corning

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$195.16

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Masco

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