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TSN

Tyson Foods

$68.24

-6.14 (-8.25%)

, SAFM

Sanderson Farms

$93.18

0.39 (0.42%)

11:01
10/07/16
10/07
11:01
10/07/16
11:01

Analyst sees collusion charges hurting Tyson multiple, cuts shares to Sell

Research firm Pivotal Research downgraded Tyson Foods (TSN) two notches to Sell from Buy, saying that a new class action lawsuit will lead to "intense scrutiny" of chicken producers, will cause investors to question the sustainability of chicken margins ,and will probably cause Tyson's multiple to decline. The firm slashed its price target on the stock to $40 from $100. LAWSUIT: A class action lawsuit is alleging that Tyson and other chicken producers used nonpublic industry data to collude on production of chicken "since about 2008," reported Pivotal analyst Timothy Ramey. Specifically, the lawsuit alleges that Tyson and its competitors used "clues" embedded in the data "to collude on production cuts," Ramey stated. ASSESSMENT OF LAWSUIT: Ramey said he "long wondered" how chicken prices have remained high over the last several years, when in previous years producers would increase chicken supplies when corn prices fell, leading the sector's margins to "collapse." According to Ramey, "the narrative of this suit fits the fact-pattern of poultry pricing and margins over the past seven years." It also could explain why Tyson has been able to provide profit guidance "with remarkable precision" over the last several years, whereas previously it did not provide guidance at all, the analyst stated. He added that Tyson's margins have reached levels "previously thought unattainable." The class action lawsuit "has merit," Ramey contended. OUTLOOK: The analyst said he would not be surprised if the private data will be "sanitized," preventing industry players from using it to control supplies. Ramey believes that the sustainability of chicken margins "could logically be questioned," and he thinks that the multiple of Tyson's stock will probably fall significantly until the issue is resolved. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other chicken producers include Sanderson Farms (SAFM) and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC). PRICE ACTION: In early trading, Tyson sank 9% to $67.63, while Sanderson lost 4% to $89.18 and Pilgrim's Pride retreated nearly 5% to $20.11 per share.

TSN

Tyson Foods

$68.24

-6.14 (-8.25%)

SAFM

Sanderson Farms

$93.18

0.39 (0.42%)

PPC

Pilgrim's Pride

$21.11

0.27 (1.30%)

  • 27

    Oct

TSN Tyson Foods
$68.24

-6.14 (-8.25%)

10/07/16
10/07/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Tyson Foods (TSN) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Pivotal Research with analyst Timothy Ramey citing the broiler price-fixing alleged in the class action complaint filed on September 2. 2. SolarEdge (SEDG) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman while the firm also downgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Neutral from Buy. 3. CIT Group (CIT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel with analyst Christopher Brendler saying investors should sell into the rally that will result from the "impressive" price that the company received for its aircraft business and the approval of its capital plan by the Fed. 4. Fifth Third (FITB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with analyst Ken Usdin saying the shares are reasonably valued following the recent rally. 5. Blackhawk (HAWK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst David Chu saying the firm's channel checks indicate that conversions to EMV, the new standard for chip-based debit/credit card transactions, are taking longer than expected, which he believes could impact Blackhawk's 2016 guidance and expectations for 2017. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/07/16
PIVT
10/07/16
DOWNGRADE
PIVT
Sell
Tyson Foods downgraded to Sell from Hold at Pivotal Research
Pivotal analyst Timothy Ramey downgraded Tyson Foods to Sell and slashed his price target to $40 from $100 due to the broiler price-fixing alleged in the class action complaint filed on September 2. Ramey said the complain alleges supply collusion occurred through nonpublic data exchange; detailed industry reports compiled on a daily or weekly basis by Agri Stats. Supposedly, the data has telling clues as to the identity of the other industry participants, making it is easy for the industry to collude on production cuts since they provide non-public information to Agri Stats on future production intentions. The analyst wondered why margins improved dramatically over the past seven years in a historically undisciplined industry. Ramey believes the class-action suit has merit and will lead to intense scrutiny of the broiler industry and questions the sustainability of chicken margins. He expects Tyson shares will be pressured until this complex issue is resolved and damages could be very substantial.
09/19/16
SPHN
09/19/16
NO CHANGE
Target $85
SPHN
Overweight
Stephens makes Tyson Foods new Best Idea in Food and Agribusiness
Stephens analyst Farha Aslam is making Tyson Foods her firm's new Best Idea in Food and Agribusiness as she believes the company is well positioned for long-term growth. Consumers' growing interest in protein rich foods is creating opportunities to innovate new products, create brands in previously commodity categories, and improve margins, she added. Aslam reiterates an Overweight rating and $85 price target on the shares.
07/26/16
CLVD
07/26/16
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Buy
Tyson Foods estimates raised further above consensus at Cleveland Research
Cleveland Research analyst Mike Piken raised Tyson Foods' FY16 and FY17 estimates further above consensus on improved chicken and beef outlook. The analyst is modeling Q3 earnings of $1.11, versus consensus of $1.05, driven by expectations for stronger beef EBIT margins, raised Q4 to $1.08, versus consensus of $1.06, to reflect a strong start for Pork, revised FY16 to $4.40, above consensus of $4.33, and FY17 to $4.79, versus consensus of $4.60. Piken rates Tyson a Buy.
SAFM Sanderson Farms
$93.18

0.39 (0.42%)

06/07/16
JEFF
06/07/16
NO CHANGE
Target $70
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies recommends Tyson Foods following recent selloff
Jefferies analyst Akshay Jagdale attributes the recent selloff in protein stocks to the recent rally in grain prices and decline in pork margins. The analyst recommends buying shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) but continues to see "significant further potential downside" in Sanderson Farms (SAFM). Jagdale lowered his price target for Tyson to $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the name. He keeps a Hold rating on Hormel Foods (HRL) with a reduced price target of $34 and Underperform rating on Sanderson with a price target of $60.
08/18/16
LYON
08/18/16
UPGRADE
Target $113
LYON
Buy
Sanderson Farms upgraded to Buy from Outperform at CLSA
CLSA analyst Jeremy Scott upgraded Sanderson Farms to Buy saying the outlook for chicken margins has improved with U.S. corn and soybean crops set to break records on ideal growing conditions. The analyst raised his price target for the shares to $113 from $107.
10/05/16
DADA
10/05/16
INITIATION
Target $103
DADA
Neutral
Sanderson Farms initiated with a Neutral at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Eric Gottlieb initiated Sanderson Farms with a Neutral and a $103 price target siting valuation.
05/27/16
05/27/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank by analyst Karl Keirstead, who said the beat in Q3 was just 2% and back-end loaded. The company was also downgraded to Hold at Needham. 2. Monsanto (MON) downgraded to Neutral at Atlantic Equities with analyst Colin Isaac saying that while Bayer is likely to raise its $122 per share offer, it is far from certain that a mutually acceptable valuation will be agreed upon. 3. Sanderson Farms (SAFM) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan by analyst Ken Goldman, who is increasingly concerned about the potential impact of La Nina on feed costs. 4. Workday (WDAY) downgraded to Underperform at Wedbush with analyst Steve Koenig saying his Q1 checks indicate softer implementation pipelines due to macro and competitive factors, and Oracle's (ORCL) aggressive discounting. 5. EMC (EMC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
PPC Pilgrim's Pride
$21.11

0.27 (1.30%)

06/09/16
CLVD
06/09/16
NO CHANGE
CLVD
Pilgrim's Pride estimates lowered below consensus at Cleveland Research
Cleveland Research analyst Mike Piken lowered Pilgrim's Price estimates to reflect the volume impact of the shutdown of the Prepared Foods plant in Texas and to reflect the impact of potentially higher 2HF16 feed costs. Piken's Q2 earnings estimate goes to 60c, below consensus of 69c, and FY16 is lowered to $2.17, versus consensus of $2.11. The analyst has a Neutral rating on Pilgrim's Pride shares.
06/06/16
BMOC
06/06/16
DOWNGRADE
BMOC
Market Perform
Pilgrim's Pride downgraded on valuation, costs at BMO Capital
As noted earlier, BMO Capital downgraded Pilgrim's Pride to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm downgraded the stock based on valuation and rising feed costs. Target to $27 from $29.
06/06/16
BMOC
06/06/16
DOWNGRADE
BMOC
Market Perform
Pilgrim's Pride downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
05/25/16
05/25/16
DOWNGRADE

Hold
Pilgrim's Pride downgraded on valuation at BB&T
As noted earlier, BB&T downgraded Pilgrim's Pride to Hold from Buy. The firm downgraded the stock based on valuation.

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