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NFLX

Netflix

$104.82

-0.25 (-0.24%)

, AMZN

Amazon.com

$839.43

-2.23 (-0.26%)

10:29
10/10/16
10/10
10:29
10/10/16
10:29

Deutsche says sell Netflix with takeover seen as unlikely

The shares of Netflix (NFLX) are slipping in early trading after Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of the shares with a Sell rating. The market's expectations for the company are too optimistic and it's unlikely to be acquired, the firm stated. EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH: The market's expectations for Netflix are too high through 2020, warned Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft. In 2017, Netflix's costs will exceed expectations, while revenue shortfalls will be "the primary driver" of lower than expected earnings before interest and taxes from 2018-2020, Kraft stated. Noting that Netflix has penetrated more than 50% of U.S. broadband homes, the analyst thinks that it will be more difficult for the company to obtain new subscribers going forward. Netflix's subscriber growth will probably decelerate going forward, the analyst believes. TAKEOVER UNLIKELY: Netflix won't be acquired by Apple (AAPL) or Disney (DIS) because the streaming service's business is "too fully formed/valued" to be an appealing takeover target, according to Kraft. Additionally, such a deal could lack a "strategic rationale" and an acquirer may face "severe economic/earnings dilution," the analyst stated. VALUATION: Calling Netflix's risk/reward "unattractive" in the face of competition from Amazon (AMZN), Kraft set a $90 price target on the stock. BERNSTEIN AGREES: Last week, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said he did not see a "compelling rationale" for Apple acquiring Netflix. Buying Netflix to run exclusively on Apple's operating service and AppleTV is "not a value-creating thesis and could not possibly justify a $50B price tag," Sacconaghi told investors in a research note. Sacconaghi believes Apple could get much of the benefit of a services offering with much less upfront risk by partnering with Netflix, rather than acquiring it, but also thinks a potential a partnership or acquisition by Apple does not justify owning Netflix since a deal is very hard to predict. The analyst has an Outperform rating on Apple and an Underpeform rating on Netflix. RAYMOND JAMES STILL BULLISH: Worries about Netflix's subscriber churn and its international business have "dominated" its stock in 2016, wrote Justin Patterson, an analyst at Raymond James. However, Google Trends data indicate that the company's churn peaked last quarter, and it should benefit from the release of two new "breakout" original shows in Q3 and Q4, Patterson believes. Moreover, the international markets that the company entered in 2010 and 2013 should generate about $500M of profit this year and $772M of profit next year, according to the analyst, who kept a $120 price target and Outperform rating on the shares. PRICE ACTION: In early trading, Netflix fell 0.5% to $104.21 per share. Year-to-date the stock has slid about 9%.

NFLX

Netflix

$104.82

-0.25 (-0.24%)

AMZN

Amazon.com

$839.43

-2.23 (-0.26%)

AAPL

Apple

$114.06

0.17 (0.15%)

DIS

Disney

$92.68

0.19 (0.21%)

  • 17

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NFLX Netflix
$104.82

-0.25 (-0.24%)

10/10/16
10/10/16
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Netflix (NFLX) initiated with a Sell at Deutsche Bank. 2. Noble Midstream (NBLX) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, a Hold at Deutsche Bank, an Overweight at JPMorgan, an Outperform at Baird, a Buy at Mizuho, a Buy at Citi, and an Overweight at MUFG. 3. AB InBev (BUD) reinstated with a Buy at Goldman. 4. First Solar (FSLR) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray. First Solar (FSLR) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray. 5. Molson Coors (TAP) reinstated with a Buy at Goldman and resumed with a Buy at BofA/Merrill. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/10/16
RAJA
10/10/16
NO CHANGE
Target $120
RAJA
Outperform
Netflix remains a core holding at Raymond James
Raymond James analyst Justin Patterson said his research suggests US churn peaked in Q2 and he remains comfortable with his 300k US net adds for Q3. Further, Patterson said early International cohorts generate greater than 20% contribution margin and said EBITDA and earnings upside is likely in 2017 and beyond. The analyst recommends owning shares for a profit inflection as investments peaked in 2016 and reiterates his Outperform rating and $120 price target.
10/10/16
DBAB
10/10/16
INITIATION
Target $90
DBAB
Sell
Deutsche sees Netflix takeover as unlikely, starts shares at Sell
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft initiated shares of Netflix (NFLX) with a Sell rating and $90 price target. The stock closed Friday down 25c to $104.82. The risk/reward is unattractive as consensus expectations reflect an "optimistic case," Kraft tells investors in a research note. Market expectations appear too high through 2020, the analyst contends. He also expresses skepticism that Netflix will be acquired. The business is "too fully formed" and valued to be acquired by Disney (DIS) and Apple (AAPL), Kraft writes. He also sees Amazon.com (AMZN) as a competitive risk to Netflix.
10/10/16
DBAB
10/10/16
INITIATION
Target $90
DBAB
Sell
Netflix initiated with a Sell at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft started shares of Netflix with a Sell rating and $90 price target.
AMZN Amazon.com
$839.43

-2.23 (-0.26%)

10/05/16
MKMP
10/05/16
NO CHANGE
MKMP
Buy
Reported VMware pact with Amazon a positive, says MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Kevin Buttigieg noted the Fortune report claiming that VMware (VMW) will soon announce a cloud partnership with Amazon Web Services (AMZN). Such an agreement with Amazon would be positive for VMware, as it will signal their confidence in their ability to sell software for use on-premise and underscore a belief that public cloud is unlikely to assume all workloads. The firm has a Buy rating on VMware shares.
10/06/16
OPCO
10/06/16
NO CHANGE
OPCO
Microsoft, Amazon well positioned to enable cloud, AI trends, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan notes that machine learning and artificial intelligence have been use to improve applications and acceleration of infrastructure builds, with "intelligent software" designed to make lives easier and more productive. Further, the analyst sees communications and cloud services continuing to converge, with infrastructure and data as key components to AI. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) Web Service are well positioned to enable these trends, he contends, adding that he see colocation providers, such as Equinix (EQIX) and Interxion (INXN), and networking companies like Zayo Group (ZAYO) GTT Communications (GTT) as beneficiaries.
10/05/16
RHCO
10/05/16
NO CHANGE
Target $850
RHCO
Neutral
Amazon.com price target raised to $850 from $800 at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Robert Peck continues to think Amazon will benefit from the Prime flywheel, higher third-party adoption, and secular Web Services growth, but he keeps a Neutral rating on the stock, citing the positive assumptions already "baked into" Street expectations, rising competition, its high capital intensity and tough comps. The analyst raised his price target on Amazon shares to $850 from $800.
AAPL Apple
$114.06

0.17 (0.15%)

10/07/16
RBCM
10/07/16
NO CHANGE
RBCM
Apple average selling prices could beat expectations, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Amit Daryanani says that his analysis indicates that the average selling prices of Apple's iPhone 7 could significantly exceed Street expectations. Stronger demand for the "plus" model versus the last two years, along with the fact that Apple is charging a $120 premium for the "plus" model versus a $100 premium historically, should boost average selling prices, the analyst stated. He thinks that Apple's September quarter revenue could beat expectations by a "modest" amount, while the company's December quarter guidance could be "materially ahead of Street expectations." He keeps a $125 price target and Outperform rating on the stock.
10/06/16
RBCM
10/06/16
NO CHANGE
RBCM
Apple has positive read through from Dialog results, says RBC Capital
After Dialog issued a positive preannouncement due to higher than expected Mobile Services revenue, RBC Capital analyst Amit Daryanani thinks that the Dialog results should comfort Apple investors heading into that company's September quarter results. The analyst notes that Apple accounts for 75%-80% of Dialog's revenue. He keeps a $125 price target and Outperform rating on Apple.
10/06/16
ADAM
10/06/16
NO CHANGE
Target $140
ADAM
Buy
Apple iPhone 7 demand remains healthy, says Canaccord
Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley said channel checks show demand for iPhone 7 remains healthy with an ongoing strong mix leading to higher selling prices. The analyst believes the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s products enabled Apple to materially increase its market share and installed base of the premium tier smartphone market. Walkley reiterate his Buy rating and $140 price target on Apple shares.
DIS Disney
$92.68

0.19 (0.21%)

09/28/16
SBSH
09/28/16
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Buy
Citi hopes Disney does not acquire Twitter
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet lays out four reasons for why he doesn't like Disney (DIS) pursuing an acquisition of Twitter (TWTR). Going back 15 years, the analyst can't think of a single web-based property that was successfully acquired by a traditional media firm. Two, he calls Twitter trends "troubling." Three, Bazinet estimates a cash offer would lower Disney's stock by $5 per share while an equity offer would drop its stock by $9. Four, the analyst feels it is unclear how Disney's content will help Twitter. Bazinet thinks both Yahoo (YHOO) and Twitter lost "significant money" when they streamed NFL content over the web. The analyst hopes Twitter is acquired by somebody other than Disney. He keeps a Buy rating on Disney shares. Both Loop Capital and Mizuho this morning downgraded Twitter to sell ratings.
10/06/16
SBSH
10/06/16
NO CHANGE
Target $89
SBSH
Buy
Citi says Salesforce buying Twitter 'nearly impossible' above $28/share
Citi analyst Walter Pritchard believes a Salesforce (CRM) acquisition of Twitter (TWTR) is possible financially but that such a deal would put "significant constraints" on the company for the next three-plus years. The analyst sees "very little reason" for Salesforce to own Twitter and feels the acquisition "would pose a difficult decision" for CEO Marc Benioff and the board. Salesforce closed yesterday down 6%, or $4.21, to $68.42. Recode reported last night that the company is likely the only bidder left for Twitter after Disney (DIS) and Alphabet (GOOG) opted not to pursue a deal while Apple (AAPL) is unlikely. Twitter in pre-market trading is down 14% to $21.50. In order for Salesforce to avoid a shareholder vote, it would have to borrow $7.5B to fund the transaction if Twitter were valued at $20B, or $27.50-$28 per share, Pritchard tells investors in a research note. This is a level that likely constrains the company with little additional borrowing capacity for other deals, the analyst contends. He thinks the deal is "nearly impossible to do" for Salesforce should the bidding for Twitter go above $20B or $28 per share. Pritchard has a Buy rating on Salesforce with an $89 price target.
09/27/16
SBSH
09/27/16
NO CHANGE
Target $16
SBSH
Neutral
Citi sees 40% downside in Twitter with no takeover bid
Citi analyst Mark May believes Twitter's (TWTR) risk/reward skews to the downside following the recent rally in the shares. A buyout of the company carries "strategic rationale for certain companies," but Twitter's "struggles and steep valuation" make a deal at a meaningful premium less likely, May tells investors in a research note. A takeover at $26 per share looks aggressive, May contends. He believes the stock could retest the lows of late May, representing 40% downside from current levels, should an acquisition offer not materialize. The analyst keeps a Neutral rating on Twitter with a $16 price target. The shares closed yesterday up 75c to $23.37 following reports that Disney (DIS) may be joining the list of potential acquires that already includes Alphabet (GOOG) and Salesforce (CRM).

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