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AA

Alcoa

$31.51

0.14 (0.45%)

07:49
10/11/16
10/11
07:49
10/11/16
07:49

Alcoa sees 2016 global alumina deficit of 1.6M metric tons

The global aerospace market continues to undergo a transition as new aero engine launches accelerate demand, outpacing near-term demand for airframe components, which is being partially absorbed through de-stocking. As a result, Alcoa forecasts full-year 2016 aircraft deliveries to be flat to up 3 percent. Strong market fundamentals continue to drive long- term demand. Alcoa continues to forecast global automotive production growth of 1 to 4 percent in 2016, unchanged from the prior quarter. This includes 1 to 2 percent growth in North America, where overall sales are up slightly, and a strengthening outlook in China. Growth in the heavy duty truck, trailer and bus market in Europe and China is expected to be mostly offset by continued production declines in North America, setting the global production outlook at flat to 2 percent growth in 2016. This marks an improvement over the negative 4 to negative 1 percent forecast in the second quarter of 2016. The 2016 global packaging market is projected to be up slightly for the year, with growth of 2 to 3 percent, up slightly from the prior quarter's forecast of 1 to 3 percent. The global building and construction market is projected to grow 4 to 6 percent in 2016, unchanged from the second quarter. Low natural gas prices in North America and the adoption of new, high-efficiency industrial gas turbine models continue to drive orders for both heavy-duty gas turbines and spare parts. Alcoa projects global airfoil market growth to be 2 to 4 percent for 2016, unchanged from the prior quarter. For 2016, Alcoa projects a global alumina deficit of 1.6 million metric tons. The Company also continues to project a global aluminum deficit of 615 thousand metric tons in 2016 as 5 percent global aluminum demand growth surpasses 3 percent global aluminum supply growth.

  • 11

    Oct

AA Alcoa
$31.51

0.14 (0.45%)

05/23/16
BOFA
05/23/16
UPGRADE
BOFA
Buy
Alcoa upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
05/23/16
05/23/16
UPGRADE
Target $11

Buy
Alcoa upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Alcoa to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $11 from $10.50. Analyst Timna Tanners said aluminum and alumina has become a lesser portion of Alcoa's earnings yet shares have become increasingly correlated to aluminum pricing while aerospace exposure now leaves it with an estimated 75% of its earnings levered to the segment. Tanners is confident in an upswing in aero-heavy downstream results and sees engine deliveries up 10% in 2016 and 18% in 2017. The analyst views the recent pullback in Alcoa shares as a buying opportunity given reduced commodity exposure and increased aero contribution.
09/09/16
GHSC
09/09/16
INITIATION
Target $11
GHSC
Neutral
Alcoa initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Global
Seaport Global analyst Josh Sullivan initiated Alcoa with a Neutral and $11 price target.
09/09/16
09/09/16
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. American Express (AXP) initiated with an Underweight at Atlantic Equities. 2. Alcoa (AA) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Global. 3. Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer. 4. Harley-Davidson (HOG) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein. 5. Verifone (PAY) initiated with a Buy at BTIG. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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