The 0.1% U.S. September industrial production rise
The 0.1% U.S. September industrial production rise matched our estimate, but it followed downward revisions that left a slightly bigger August unwind of a slightly smaller June-July spike. Analysts now have a 2.3% drop from a cyclical-peak for industrial production in November of 2014, with declines in 15 of the last 22 months and 5 of the 7 quarters through Q3. The components revealed expected September gains for mining and manufacturing and surprising firmness in the vehicle assembly rate, but weakness in utility output as elevated summer levels were quick to unwind despite a warm month. Analysts saw a 1.8% Q3 growth rate for industrial production after contraction rates of 0.8% (was 0.6%) in Q2, 1.7% in Q1 and 3.3% in Q4, but a similar 1.5% vehicle-led bounce in Q3 of last year. Analysts expect a small 0.5% growth rate in Q4 that leaves an uptrend since Q2, as the massive six-quarter inventory downswing attributable to a petro-sector supply glut, a strong dollar, and a sluggish world economy is likely dissipating.