Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed some modestly disappointing factory figures, though analysts still assume an emerging uptrend for the sector as the inventory and petro-headwind diminishes. For the October Empire State report, analysts saw a headline drop to a 5-month low of -6.8 from -2.0 in September and -4.2 in August, though this still allowed a slight rise in the ISM-adjusted measure after an outsized September hit, to 46.3 from an 8-month low of 45.1. A 0.1% September industrial production rise matched our estimate, though it followed downward revisions that left a slightly bigger August unwind of a slightly smaller June-July spike. Yet, industrial production grew at a 1.8% pace in Q3, and analysts expect a 0.5% rise in Q4 that leaves the first two-quarter rise since 2014.