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DPS

Dr Pepper Snapple

$87.30

2.05 (2.40%)

, PEP

PepsiCo

$102.92

0.66 (0.65%)

13:53
11/22/16
11/22
13:53
11/22/16
13:53

Wellness-focused M&A from Pepsi, Dr Pepper send beverage stocks higher

Several beverage companies are trading higher after Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) and PepsiCo (PEP) announced separate deals to acquire "better-for-you" drink makers, potentially signaling a pivot to acquisitions over organic growth efforts in response to secular trends towards wellness. DR PEPPER ACQUIRES BAI: Tuesday morning, Dr Pepper announced an agreement to acquire Bai Brands and its portfolio of "high-growth premium antioxidant infused beverages" for $1.7B in cash. Dr Pepper CEO Larry Young noted that Bai "has contributed greatly to our allied brand lineup since we began distributing it broadly in 2013," adding that it "provides a strong platform to incubate and grow better-for-you beverages throughout the non-carbonated and carbonated beverage sectors." The company sees Bai generating roughly $425M in 2017 sales and adding an incremental $132M to Dr Pepper's current sales expectation for 2017. The deal is expected to dilute 2017 earnings per share by about 3c due to a planned $25M marketing boost and higher interest expenses before becoming accretive in 2018. Bai's products include "enhanced" water, carbonated flavored water, coconut water and ready-to-drink teas, categories which Dr Pepper said are "projected to continue to grow worldwide for the foreseeable future." Speaking on a subsequent conference call, Dr Pepper noted it expects the deal to add $43M in incremental operating income to its 2017 estimates, and sees Bai sales more than doubling over the next two years. PEPSI ACQUIRES KEVITA: PepsiCo announced its own wellness-focused deal this morning, securing an agreement to acquire fermented probiotic and kombucha maker KeVita. Co-founder and CEO Bill Moses commented that "joining the PepsiCo family will give us an opportunity to extend KeVita's trend-forward beverages to a broader audience." The company will continue to operate independently with its production and bottling facilities in California. All KeVita drinks are organic, non-GMO, gluten-free and vegan, and Pepsi remarked that the deal is "further evidence" of its efforts to meet changing consumer trends. Following the news, a source quoted by the Wall Street Journal pinned the deal price at $250M and said KeVita had a little over $60M in annual revenue. STIFEL SAYS BAI COULD DELIVER SUSTAINED GROWTH: Arguing that analogies can be drawn between Dr Pepper Snapple and Monster (MNST), Stifel's Mark Swartzberg argues that Dr Pepper has been "grinding out" U.S. share gain while keeping marketing costs under control and focusing on what sells at retail, and its acquisition of Bai demonstrates a similar "commitment to low-risk partnering with growth brands." Swartzberg calls the Bai price "fair" and says the deal delivers not just a near-term boost but could bring sustained growth by, for example, deepening Dr Pepper's presence with Coca-Cola (KO) and Pepsi bottlers. The analyst keeps a Buy rating and $99 price target on the shares. GOLDMAN HIGHLIGHTS EXPANSION AWAY FROM SODA: Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong said the Bai deal shouldn't come as a surprise given its position as a top performing allied brand for Dr Pepper, and sees the transaction "likely" enhancing the company's growth profile given that Dr Pepper has largely been "indexed to secularly-declining carbonated soft drinks." Hong keeps a Sell rating and $85 target on the shares. DEALS IGNITES BEVERAGE STOCKS: Shares of Monster Beverage, an allied brand of Coca-Cola, are up about 4% to $45.28 after this morning's acquisition announcements, and National Beverage (FIZZ), owner of the LaCroix brand of sparkling waters, is up 0.5% to $53.50. Meanwhile, Dr Pepper is up 2.4% and PepsiCo has edged up 0.7%.

DPS

Dr Pepper Snapple

$87.30

2.05 (2.40%)

PEP

PepsiCo

$102.92

0.66 (0.65%)

MNST

Monster Beverage

$43.59

1.91 (4.58%)

KO

Coca-Cola

$41.38

0.015 (0.04%)

FIZZ

National Beverage

$53.26

2.49 (4.90%)

  • 22

    Nov

  • 09

    Dec

DPS Dr Pepper Snapple
$87.30

2.05 (2.40%)

10/04/16
10/04/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Wells Fargo (WFC) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with analyst David Long saying the fallout from the unauthorized account openings will result in continued under performance. The analyst said several additional investigations, lawsuits, and fines have been announced, resulting in a still cloudy outlook. 2. Kinder Morgan (KMI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel analyst Selman Akyol citing valuation. 3. GrubHub (GRUB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel with analyst John Egbert citing valuation. 4. Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI with analyst Robert Ottenstein saying reports that Bai Brands is looking for a new owner are credible and could change investor's psychology on the stock and its Allied Brands business. 5. Dollar Tree (DLTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Cleveland Research with the firm saying sales trends appear to have slowed further at Family Dollar as the company struggles with increased price competition, difficult comps, and strategy headwinds. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/04/16
10/04/16
DOWNGRADE

Hold
Dr Pepper Snapple downgraded on Bai Brands potential sale at Evercore ISI
As previously reported, Evercore ISI downgraded Dr Pepper Snapple to Hold form Buy. Analyst Robert Ottenstein said reports that Bai Brands is looking for a new owner are credible and could change investor's psychology on the stock and its Allied Brands business. The analyst believes Bai Brands will get sold and result in loss of distribution, negatively impacting earnings by 20c-25c. Further, Ottenstein said consumers are increasingly concerned about sugar and it is on the radar screen of local governments as a revenue source.
10/04/16
EVER
10/04/16
DOWNGRADE
EVER
Hold
Dr Pepper Snapple downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI
11/22/16
GSCO
11/22/16
NO CHANGE
GSCO
Sell
Goldman says Dr Pepper deal should boost growth, but dilutive in near-term
Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong said Dr Pepper's announcement of a deal for Bai Brands, one of the company's best performing Allied Brands, is not unexpected and should boost Dr Pepper's growth profile. However, the acquisition is expected to be dilutive near-term and increases Dr Pepper's leverage, noted the analyst, who keeps a Sell rating on the stock.
PEP PepsiCo
$102.92

0.66 (0.65%)

09/15/16
FBCO
09/15/16
INITIATION
FBCO
Outperform
PepsiCo initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
09/29/16
STFL
09/29/16
DOWNGRADE
STFL
Hold
Coca-Cola downgraded following Pepsi results at Stifel
As noted earlier, Stifel analyst Mark Swartzberg downgraded Coca-Cola (KO) to Hold from Buy. The analyst downgraded the stock after Pepsi (PEP) reported better than expected Q3 results. The analyst says that Coca-Cola's and Pepsi's organic EPS growth appears to be similar, but he believes that Pepsi is less vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. Additionally, he believes that Coca Cola European Bottlers (CCE) is a better investment than Coca-Cola because of the large amount of revenue synergies which that Coca Cola European Bottlers has identified.
09/16/16
09/16/16
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. GoPro (GPRO) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill. 2. JetBlue (JBLU) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital. 3. PepsiCo (PEP), Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS), and Monster Beverage (MNST) were initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse, while the firm initiated Boston Beer (SAM) with an Underperform. Credit Suisse also initiated Coca-Cola (KO) and Constellation Brands (STZ) with a Neutral. 4. lululemon (LULU) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna. 5. Target (TGT) coverage assumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/15/16
FBCO
09/15/16
INITIATION
Target $121
FBCO
Outperform
PepsiCo initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Laurent Grandet initiated coverage on PepsiCo with an Outperform and a $121 price target. Grandet does not believe the market is giving PepsiCo enough credit for Frito-Lay's marketing and financial strength and the rebalancing of the US beverages portfolio towards faster growing noncarbonated beverages.
MNST Monster Beverage
$43.59

1.91 (4.58%)

11/04/16
STFL
11/04/16
NO CHANGE
STFL
Monster Beverage results 'better than feared,' says Stifel
Although Monster's Q3 results came in below expectations, they were "better than feared," according to Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan. The analyst blames the miss partly on higher expenses and shipment timing. He notes that the company's gross sales accelerated meaningfully in October versus Q3, and he thinks that its U.S. market remains strong. The analyst trimmed his price target on the name to $178 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating.
11/04/16
RBCM
11/04/16
NO CHANGE
RBCM
Monster Beverage 'bull case still intact,' says RBC Capital
After Monster (MNST) reported weaker than expected results, RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi blames the miss partially on the company's transition to Coca-Cola's (KO) system. The analyst says that the company was off to a strong start in October, and he continues to believe that its growth will be boosted by innovation. He keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
10/20/16
STFL
10/20/16
NO CHANGE
STFL
Monster Beverage should be bought on recent weakness, says Stifel
Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan continues to expect Monster's sales to rise by at least high single digit percentage levels through at least 2018, partly driven by international expansion and innovation. The analyst attributes recent weakness in the stock to a lack of new products by the company and perceptions of decelerating energy drink growth. But he thinks the U.S. energy drink category "remains healthy," and he says that Monster is poised to offer new products. He recommends buying the shares on weakness and keeps a $185 price target and Buy rating on the stock.
KO Coca-Cola
$41.38

0.015 (0.04%)

09/29/16
STFL
09/29/16
DOWNGRADE
STFL
Hold
Coca-Cola downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
09/29/16
09/29/16
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel with analyst Mark Swartzberg saying that Coca-Cola's and Pepsi's organic EPS growth appears to be similar, but he believes that Pepsi is less vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. 2. Fitbit (FIT) downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson citing his channel checks which indicated that Charge 2, the company's flagship holiday product, is off to a slow start. 3. Discovery (DISCA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Barrington with analyst James Goss saying that Brexit and sports costs are dragging on its international results and foreign exchange tailwinds are moderating in many geographies. 4. Sonus (SONS) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen with analyst Paul Silverstein saying the firm's industry checks uncovered operational challenges and ongoing employee and executive churn. 5. Alcobra (ADHD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Cantor and to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/21/16
MAXM
10/21/16
NO CHANGE
Target $57
MAXM
Buy
Dunkin' Brands pullback an opportunity to build position, says Maxim
Maxim analyst Stephen Anderson believes the most important takeaway from yesterday's quarterly report from Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) is the improvement at the flagship Dunkin' Donuts brand in the U.S., not the top-line miss. The analyst noted the company cut its unit growth forecast for 2016, but expects a boost in 2017 development, and also believes the ready-to-drink bottled coffee deal recently signed with Coca-Cola (KO) is important. Anderson continues to name Dunkin' as his top pick for the rest of this year and recommends buying on yesterday's pullback. He has a Buy rating and $57 price target on Dunkin' Brands shares.
FIZZ National Beverage
$53.26

2.49 (4.90%)

09/15/16
FBCO
09/15/16
INITIATION
Target $55
FBCO
Neutral
National Beverage initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Laurent Grandet initiated coverage on National Beverage with a Neutral and a $55 price target citing full valuation.

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