Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports joined the parade of data that have lifted the growth outlook since the November elections, though the Q3 GDP boost predates the election, and the hefty November consumer confidence surge to a new cycle-high followed boosts for October. For Q3 GDP, the boost to 3.2% growth from 2.9% beat estimates thanks to a big service-led boost to consumption alongside a smaller than expected $5.1 B downward inventory bump, though both net exports and construction were lifted as assumed. Analysts left our Q4 GDP growth estimate at 1.8%, though analysts lifted our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 2.3% from 2.2%. Productivity growth for Q3 is now pegged at 3.5% instead of 3.1%, and analysts saw personal income boosts that left growth of 4.5% (was 3.9%) in Q3 and 4.9% (was 3.9%) in Q2. The consumer confidence surge to a 107.1 new cycle-high from 100.8 (was 98.6) left confidence well above the 103.8 prior cycle-high in January of 2015, though other surveys have yet to surpass their early-2015 peaks.