The 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate
The 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though analysts saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a big downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month to leave what may prove to be offsetting errors. The "as reported" ADP figures have run 18k/month weaker than private payrolls since a previous October 2012 methodology change, though analysts'll need to track this performance going forward with the new round of methodology changes that began with last month's report. Analysts've seen a 19k average overshoot thus far in 2016, and analysts saw a small 5k overshoot for the "as reported" figure in October before a revision that left a 23k undershoot. Analysts still expect a 190k rise in November payrolls, with risks analysts discuss in Monday's commentary.