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SRPT

Sarepta

$30.38

-0.73 (-2.35%)

, SHPG

Shire

$183.21

2.51 (1.39%)

10:45
03/02/17
03/02
10:45
03/02/17
10:45

Sarepta rises after analysts say buy on Duchenne drug upside

Shares of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) are on the rise after Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz upgraded the stock to Outperform, a buy-equivalent rating, saying that the company's lower estimates seem "achievable" despite headwinds. Meanwhile, his peer at Nomura initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating, expecting "significant upside" to materialize as launch metrics for Sarepta's Exondys 51 for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy begin to reflect an "underestimated demand" for the drug. REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS: In a research note to investors, Leerink's Schwartz upgraded Sarepta to Outperform from Market Perform saying the stock now appears to have fully consolidated and reflects reasonable expectations for the Exondys launch following management's new revenue guidance, which looks "highly conservative." Sarepta should be able to meet revenue guidance in 2017 with relatively low conversion of existing patients from start forms to reimbursed status, the analyst argues. Furthermore, Schwartz said that the setup for the company's shares now looks reminiscent of the Cinryze launch at Shire's (SHPG) ViroPharma, which also penetrated an ultra-orphan market that many investors doubted "would bear enough fruit" to meet expectations. Additionally, the analyst told investors that upside could come from Exondys 51 approval in the EU and/or successful development of follow-on antisense candidates. Schwartz raised his price target on Sarepta's shares to $47 from $27. UNDERESTIMATED DEMAND: In a note of his own, Nomura analyst Christopher Marai started coverage of Sarepta with a Buy rating and $84 price target, saying he expects "significant upside" to materialize as its Exondys 51 launch metrics begin to reflect "underestimated demand" for the treatment and the ultimate patient numbers and market opportunity. The analyst told investors that physician feedback has been "strong," with some indicating ideally they would use Exondys 51 in 100% of their patients. Additionally, Marai noted that he anticipates reimbursement to be broadly secured. First quarter guidance is conservative but in-line with expectations and launch ramp supporting upside, he contended. The analyst also argued that Exondys 51's broad-label supporting uptake in the non-ambulant population, which is a higher cost-per patient market, is as an indication of the unmet need and patient perceptions of risk/benefits, despite uncertain treatment outcomes. Marai expects additional upside to be realized following EU approval of Exondys 51, which will help bolster perception of the drug's benefit and to define the EU opportunity, currently not reflected in shares. Meanwhile, the Federal Drug and Administration approval also enables ex-U.S. launches in Latin America, with Columbia and Argentina representing near-term revenue opportunities, Marai argued. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Sarepta have jumped about 8% to $32.78.

SRPT

Sarepta

$30.38

-0.73 (-2.35%)

SHPG

Shire

$183.21

2.51 (1.39%)

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    Mar

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    Jun

SRPT Sarepta
$30.38

-0.73 (-2.35%)

03/01/17
NOMU
03/01/17
INITIATION
Target $84
NOMU
Buy
Sarepta initiated with a Buy at Nomura
Nomura initiated Sarepta with a Buy and an $84 price target.
03/02/17
LEER
03/02/17
UPGRADE
LEER
Outperform
Sarepta upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink
03/02/17
LEER
03/02/17
UPGRADE
Target $47
LEER
Outperform
Leerink upgrades Sarepta to Outperform with $47 price target
Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz upgraded Sarepta Therapeutics to Outperform from Market Perform saying the stock now reflects "reasonable expectations" for the Exondys launch. Management's new revenue guidance looks "highly conservative," Schwartz tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes share upside could come from Exondys 51 approval in Europe and/or successful development of follow-on antisense candidates. He raised his price target for Sarepta shares to $47 from $27. The stock closed yesterday down 73c to $30.38.
03/02/17
03/02/17
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse with analyst Edward Westlake saying that after underperformance versus the S&P, the stock has option value. The analyst also raised his price target on the shares to $83 from $78. 2. RBS (RBS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg. 3. Windstream (WIN) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies with analyst Scott Goldman saying he sees less risk to estimates following management's 2017 guidance. The analyst upped his price target for the shares to $7.50 from $6. 4. Sarepta (SRPT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink with analyst Joseph Schwartz saying the stock now reflects "reasonable expectations" for the Exondys launch. Management's new revenue guidance looks "highly conservative," Schwartz tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes share upside could come from Exondys 51 approval in Europe and/or successful development of follow-on antisense candidates. He raised his price target for Sarepta shares to $47 from $27. 5. Estee Lauder (EL) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray with analyst Stephanie Wissink saying the growth is de-risked following the guidance reset. The analyst is "bullish" on the prospects for double digit earnings growth for investors that can look into FY18. She raised her price target for the shares to $95 from $81. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
SHPG Shire
$183.21

2.51 (1.39%)

12/02/16
SOCG
12/02/16
INITIATION
SOCG
Buy
Shire initiated with a Buy at Societe Generale
12/02/16
12/02/16
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated at BMO Capital. 2. Pfizer (PFE) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim. 3. DuPont Fabros (DFT) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim. 4. Acadia (ACHC) resumed with a Buy at Jefferies. 5. Shire (SHPG) initiated with a Buy at Societe Generale. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
12/06/16
UBSW
12/06/16
DOWNGRADE
UBSW
Neutral
Shire downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
01/19/17
01/19/17
NO CHANGE

Shire's application for ADHD disorder candidate acknowledged by FDA
Shire announced that the FDA has acknowledged receipt of the Class 2 resubmission of a New Drug Application for SHP465, a long-acting, triple-bead, mixed amphetamine salts formulation. SHP465 is being evaluated as a potential once-daily treatment for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. The FDA is expected to provide a decision on or around June 20. Shire resubmitted the NDA for SHP465 in response to the Approvable Letter from the FDA that requested additional clinical studies and classified the response as a Class 2 resubmission with a review goal of six months. Launch is planned for the second half of 2017.

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