Before the Move: Watch cable, media names into FCC set-top box vote

After a nearly year-long process, the Federal Communications Commission is set to vote on its plan to break open the cable box market on Thursday. The proposal has been heavily contested by cable and media companies, and though they succeeded in ratcheting down the original plan, the new regulation could nevertheless create "longer term risk" for those in the space, research firm Cowen argued ahead of the vote. BACKGROUND: On Thursday, the FCC will vote on its plan to open up the cable box market. The proposal, whose initial draft in January called for cable companies to allow unfettered access to their programming and content streams, has been gradually toned down throughout the year as agency chairman Tom Wheeler sought consensus between incumbents AT&T (T) and Comcast (CMCSA) and potential future providers like Google (GOOG). The current proposal would eliminate the need for cable boxes by allowing consumers to access their TV subscriptions via free apps built by the telco companies and distributed across popular devices like the Roku and Apple (AAPL) TV, and would also mandate a standard license governing the apps. Notably, left-leaning FCC commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel -- one of five who will vote on the proposal -- voiced concern as recently as this month, saying at a September 15 Senate hearing that she had "some problems" with the proposal's implications of overreaching FCC authority. COWEN SEES PLAN SUCCEEDING: Weighing in on the event, Cowen analyst Paul Gallant said today he continues to believe Wheeler will succeed in capturing Rosenworcel's support and securing a majority vote for the plan, "which could create longer term risk for cable and content companies." Key to Gallant's confidence in the vote is a September 22 communication by the major cable and content companies disclosing a series of meetings with the FCC, during which they stressed the potential illegality of the agency creating a licensing body impacting content delivery. The parties instead discussed the FCC performing a "reevaluation of the marketplace" two years after the apps launch, a compromise which the analyst believes will see Wheeler securing the votes he needs. PRICE ACTION: Shares of Comcast are up fractionally in afternoon trading, while AT&T is down 1.9% to $40.67. Other stakeholders in the cable box proposal include Charter (CHTR), DISH (DISH), Verizon (VZ), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and TiVo (TIVO). "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.