Before the Move: Watch Tesla into Q1 delivery announcement

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release its first quarter delivery and production numbers this weekend, giving investors an updated view of its business execution as it ramps production of the upcoming Model 3 to mass-market volumes. BACKGROUND: Tesla historically releases quarterly unit numbers roughly one month before its full financial reports, providing both production and delivery numbers for the period. Importantly, the unit announcements typically include commentary on forward-looking guidance as well as any production trends Tesla may be experiencing, which last quarter include reference to "short-term production challenges." BAIRD LOOKS FOR AT LEAST 20K UNITS: Baird's Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating on Tesla this week ahead of its delivery numbers. The analyst expects an announcement by Monday and says Tesla would be on track to meet its guidance for the first half of this year if it manages to deliver over 20,000 cars, an achievement which would also keep the investment story centered around Model 3 production. More generally, Kallo continues to believe Tesla "will make new highs in 2017" as it executes toward the Model 3, ramps operations at the Gigafactory, and launches its Solar Roof product, adding that the recent investment by Tencent (TCEHY) looks like a "vote of confidence." The analyst also expects another Model 3 event before July, possibly providing additional details on the vehicle and serving as a catalyst for the stock. COWEN SEES DELIVERIES AT LOW END: Cowen's Jeffrey Osborne maintained an Underperform rating on Tesla Wednesday, saying he expects 23,000 deliveries for the quarter. The estimate is "at the low end of buyside expectations" that range from 23,000-24,500, which Osborne argues do not fully account for "softer trends" in January and February as well as the delayed 100 kilowatt-hour option, which potentially led to inventory build-up until EPA clearance in mid-March. That said, Osborne doesn't believe a slight delivery miss would upset long investors as "all eyes" are likely watching for Model 3 comments and order growth rates for the existing Model S and X, particularly given what he calls "saturation fears." PRICE ACTION: Shares of Tesla are up 0.4% to $278.37 in afternoon trading. Over the last three sessions, since Tencent Holdings' disclosure on Tuesday morning that it has acquired a 5% passive stake in Tesla, the electric car maker's stock has risen about 3%. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.