With biotech a major player on the front lines of battling COVID-19, both in terms of treatments and vaccine development, Piper Sandler analyst Christopher Raymond lists Moderna (MRNA), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), Opko Health (OPK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and Biogen (BIIB) among the names that are likely to see benefit, or at least garner additional attention, during this time.
UNPACKING COVID-19, BIOTECH IMPLICATIONS: While Piper Sandler analyst Christopher Raymond acknowledged that to call the current situation "fluid" would be an "understatement," he identified specific buckets of impact on biotech stocks divided into four areas - namely potential impacts on clinical trial conduct, regulatory execution, supply chain and commercial execution.
CLINICAL TRIAL CONDUCT: The analyst pointed out that a fair question centers on conducting clinical trials in locations expecting a wave of COVID-19 patients. On his lists, names with pivotal or otherwise important trials ongoing include:
Overall, Raymond sees "lots of opportunity" for disruption.
IMPACT IF FDA, EMA REDIRECT RESOURCES: The analyst believes that perhaps "the most obvious anticipated regulatory event" in the space is the Food and Drug Administration's decision on Biogen's aducanumab for Alzheimers. Others he identified include:
SUPPLY CHAIN THREATS: While he acknowledged that any supply chain threats are "the hardest to gauge," Raymond noted that many companies have already warned that supply chains could see interruption, including Amgen and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), among others.
COMMERCIAL EXECUTION: Regarding commercial execution, the analyst believes the "obvious concern" has been around Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' Eylea and whether elderly patients will continue VEGF therapy. While the company contends no impact has been seen to date, he thinks this is worth monitoring closely. Same for Aerie Pharmaceuticals (AERI), but in glaucoma, he added. Raymond also believes Acadia Pharmaceuticals' (ACAD) Nuplazid's reliance on the elderly warrants attention, but so far no impact has been seen, according to management. Moreover, launching a new therapy in this environment offers its own set of challenges, he contended, highlighting:
Beigene’s (BGNE) China exposure is, of course, widely discussed, the analyst added.
STOCKS, CATALYSTS LESS IMPACTED: The analyst also noted, however, that numerous catalysts can still play out regardless, as clinical programs have largely wrapped up. These include Akebia Therapeutics' (AKBA) INNOVATE and PROTECT trials and Milestone Pharmaceutical's (MIST) Phase 3 NODE-301 trial.
COVID-19 PLAYS: Additionally, Raymond noted that Moderna, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Opko Health, Gilead Sciences, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Biogen have all announced active pursuits toward countermeasures to COVID-19 either via treatment or vaccine.
Moderna
-0.72 (-3.05%)
Inovio
+0.94 (+11.23%)
Opko Health
-0.22 (-13.10%)
Gilead
-3.55 (-4.86%)
Regeneron
-24.48 (-5.26%)
Biogen
-17.73 (-6.03%)
Amgen
-9.375 (-4.72%)
Deciphera
-3.33 (-7.49%)
Rigel Pharmaceuticals
-0.175 (-9.64%)
Bought by JNJ
-0.62 (-2.34%)
uniQure
-5.72 (-12.08%)
FibroGen
-3.34 (-9.38%)
Blueprint Medicines
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DBV Technologies
-0.95 (-13.40%)
BioMarin
-6.09 (-6.99%)
Theravance Biopharma
-0.6 (-2.42%)
Acquired by GILD
-1.04 (-7.77%)
Zogenix
-1.27 (-5.58%)
Rockwell Medical
-0.68 (-23.61%)
MorphoSys
-2.78 (-11.03%)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
-11.86 (-5.38%)
Aerie Pharmaceuticals
-1.06 (-7.28%)
Acadia Pharmaceuticals
-0.945 (-2.56%)
Bought by PFE
-6.41 (-11.69%)
Acceleron
-4.875 (-5.76%)
BeiGene
-3.23 (-2.22%)
Akebia
-0.67 (-9.65%)
Milestone Pharmaceuticals
-1.01 (-5.05%)
Bought by NSRGY
-2.41 (-13.72%)