Morgan Stanley said Alcoa's risk/reward is attractive and recent transactions in the aerospace supplier industry suggest the company's downstream portfolio is underappreciated. Analyst Paretosh Misra believes the Alcoa's downstream business is worth $8-$11/share and a recovery in upstream aluminum, although slow, limits price downside. Misra expects Alcoa to be free cash flow positive in 2016 and supply cuts in the next 6 months. Morgan Stanley rates shares an Overweight with a $14 price target on shares.
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Morgan Stanley upgraded Alcoa to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $36.50, up from $28.50. The analyst now sees a more balanced risk/reward for Alcoa shares given the company's continued progress on cost saving measures, reduced uncertainty on the path to resolving bauxite mining issues in Western Australia, and potentially more Inflation Reduction Act benefits to come. The operational concerns that persisted throughout 2023 have largely been de-risked, the analyst tells investors in a research note.