Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Kurtz said shares of Alcoa are now pricing in 79c/lb aluminum compared to the 89c/lb spot, positioning shares to better withstand any potential commodity price weakness near-term. The firm's commodity team is looking for a modest decline to 84c/lb in 2017-2019 and rising to 90c/lb in 2020. Kurtz sees a favorable setup for Alcoa shares, where downside appears limited, while aluminum pricing is on a higher path longer-term, versus a more bearish view in the market. He said Chinese aluminum production during January-February was off of a low comp and expects the growth rate to slow down in coming months on limited capacity additions. Kurtz rates Alcoa an Overweight with a $43 price target.