As previously reported, Argus analyst David Coleman downgraded Alcoa to Hold after its reported Q2 net loss and reduced 2019 guidance along with the management's expectations of lower aluminum demand growth this year from trade tensions and macro headwinds. The analyst is also cutting his FY19 EPS view to (12c) from 90c and his FY20 forecast to $1.12 from $3.40. Coleman contends that the underperformance in Alcoa shares last quarter could provide long-term investors with a favorable entry point, but he sees upside for the shares in the near term as limited.

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B. Riley analyst Lucas Pipes raised the firm's price target on Alcoa to $31 from $25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q1 report. Compared to estimates, aluminum shipments were stronger and third-party alumina shipments also came in better, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm increased estimates on higher London Metal Exchange pricing.

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The company states: "Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $132 million, a sequential increase of $43 million primarily due to lower energy and raw material costs, partially offset by lower average realized third-party price for aluminum and higher production costs."

Reports Q1 revenue $2.60B, consensus $2.56B. "In the first quarter of 2024, we finalized the terms of our acquisition of Alumina Limited, which will bring strategic, operational, and financial flexibility," said Alcoa CEO William Oplinger. "Raw material prices and markets are improving, and we are implementing near-term improvements to further strengthen Alcoa for the future."

Pre-earnings options volume in Alcoa is 1.1x normal with calls leading puts 3:2. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 5.4%, or $1.97, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 4.8%.

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Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.  HIGHER - Alcoa (AA)... To see the rest of the story go to thefly.com. See Story Here