Piper Jaffray analyst Alex Olvera believes that Abbott (ABT) is building evidence to bolster its case that Alere (ALR) has undergone a material adverse change since Abbott agreed to acquire it. However, the analyst says he thinks that Delaware, where any litigation between the companies would occur, has never ruled that a material adverse change has occurred in any other case. Consequently, Olvera says there is "a high probability" that the takeover price for Alere will be lowered by 10%-15%. There is a "medium probability" that the cash component of the offer will be reduced and replaced with stock or Contingent Value Rights, according to the analyst. Finally, there is a "low probability" of the merger being terminated, he wrote.