A "simple analysis implies significant downside" in shares of Akorn (AKRX) if the Fresenius SE (FSNUY) takeover breaks, Deutsche Bank analyst Gregg Gilbert tells investors in a research note. The analyst notes that since a speech on February 2 by the acting director of the Bureau of Competition at the FTC Bruce Hoffman, where he suggested that in transactions where complex drugs need to be divested, the FTC will require the divestiture of on-market products rather than pipeline products, the deal spread on Akorn's stock price and the $34 per share cash offer price has averaged 7% and is currently close to 8%. Assuming EBITDA multiples of 9-13 times for a standalone Akorn, the stock has a theoretical value of $9-$15 based on the company's Q3 EBITDA annualized and an $11-$17 share price based on estimated 2018 EBITDA, Gilbert writes. He keeps a Hold rating on Akorn with a $34 price target. He believes that the widening spread suggests concerns about the deal.