Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat started Alkermes (ALKS) with a Buy rating and $59 price target. Alkermes closed yesterday up 16c to $43.58. Raffat listed three binary events for the shares over the next 12 months: Will its depression drug work in the third trial, will Biogen's (BIIB) Tecfidera remain patented through mid-late 2020s so that ALKS-8700 launches into a branded market, and will ALKS-8700 differentiate on gastrointestinal tolerability head-to-head versus Tecfidera. The analyst sees a greater than 60% probability for the first and less than 30% odds for the last two. Raffat cautions, however, that depression is "inherently risky and is riddled with history trial of failures." His analysis of the three events led to his risk-adjusted price target of $59.