Barclays analyst Robert Wertheimer rolled out coverage of the U.S. Machinery space with a Negative view. Of the fifteen companies he initiated in the sector, only two are Overweight rated. Wertheimer started five names at Underweight, his firm's equivalent of a sell. Consensus estimates are too high across the board with revenue for this cycle already peaking for most of machinery, the analyst told investors last night in a research note. He sees a sharper downturn for North American trucks than the consensus expects, with another peak level eight years away. And the tractor supercycle is only two years in a downturn, while the prior two supercycles saw seven consecutive down years in machinery sales, Wertheimer adds. Allison Transmission (ALSN) and United Rentals (URI) are the analyst's Overweight-rated stocks in the sector. Deere (DE), CNH Industrial (CNHI), Cummins (CMI), PACCAR (PCAR) and Navistar (NAV) are his Underweight rated names. Wertheimer also started with Equal Weight ratings shares of Actuant (ATU), AGCO (AGCO), Caterpillar (CAT), Joy Global (JOY), Lincoln Electric (LECO), Manitowoc (MTW), Terex (TEX) and WABCO (WBC).

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Still does not expect significant change in machine dealer inventory compared to 2023. Still expects 2024 full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be in the top half of the updated target range relative to the expected corresponding level of sales and revenues. Still expects 2024 full-year ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of the updated target range. Still anticipates another year of services growth.

Sees Q2 dealer inventories of machines down year-over-year. Expects Q2 price realization to remain favorable vs, last year. Sees Q2 adjusted operating profit margin similar to 2Q23. Guidance taken from Q1 investor presentation slides.

Reports Q1 revenue $15.8B, consensus $16.04B. "I'm pleased with our team's performance that resulted in higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter," said Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby. "We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth."

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Previous view $14.65B-$15.15B.

Notable companies reporting before tomorrow's open, with earnings consensus, include Merck (MRK), consensus $1.87... Caterpillar (CAT), consensus $5.14... Comcast (CMSCA), consensus 99c... Honeywell (HON), consensus $2.17... Bristol-Myers (BMY), consensus ($4.44)... Altria (MO), consensus $1.15... Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), consensus 35c... GE Vernova (GEV), consensus (37c)... Royal Caribbean (RCL), consensus $1.33... Tractor Supply (TSCO), consensus $1.72... Mobileye (MBLY), consensus (6c)... Textron (TXT), consensus $1.23... LabCorp (LH), consensus $3.48... Southwest Airlines (LUV), consensus (34c)... American Airlines (AAL), consensus (29c)... Harley-Davidson (HOG), consensus $1.51.

Notable companies reporting after the market close, with earnings consensus, include Meta Plataforms (META), consensus $4.32... IBM (IBM), consensus $1.60... ServiceNow (NOW), consensus $3.14... Lam Research (LRCX), consensus $7.30... Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), consensus $11.68... O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), consensus $9.26... Ford Motor (F), consensus 42c... United Rentals (URI), consensus $8.32... Align Technology (ALGN), consensus $1.97... Molina Healthcare (MOH), consensus $5.59... Teradyne (TER), consensus 33c... Universa Health Services (UHS), consensus $3.16... Western Union (WU), consensus 41c.

Cyngn (CYN) has been chosen to supply its DriveMod Tuggers for industrial automation to John Deere's (DE) operation in Dubuque, Iowa. Cyngn is a supplier of AI-powered autonomous vehicle and data solutions based in Menlo Park, CA.