Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar expects "significant downward pressure" today in shares of Axalta Coating (AXTA) after AkzoNobel (AKZOY) confirmed that it has walked away from merger talks. When the initial news hit, Axalta shares jumped 17%, or nearly $5 per share, and since then are up another 2%, Juvekar tells investors in a research note. His bear case scenario for the shares if the deal did not happen is $28, or 10.8 times his 2018 EBITDA estimate. The analyst, however, thinks Axalta remains a potential acquisition target given the ongoing consolidation of the paints industry. He still thinks the involvement of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) 10% owner, "is a wildcard." Nonetheless, Juvekar remains concerned about the company's near-term fundamentals and keeps a Neutral rating on Axalta with a $34 price target.