Berenberg downgraded Barclays to Sell with a price target that implies 22% downside. The firm believes Barclays' investment banking strategy has worsened and that its 12% return on equity target is unrealistic.

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Returns: targeting a greater than 12% RoTE; Capital returns: plan to return at least GBP 10bn of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, through dividends and share buybacks, with a continued preference for buybacks. Plan to keep total dividend stable at 2023 level in absolute terms, with progressive dividend per share growth driven through share count reduction as a result of increased share buybacks. Dividends will continue to be paid semi-annually. This multi-year plan is subject to supervisory and Board approval, anticipated financial performance and our published CET1 ratio target range of 13-14%; Income: targeting Group total income of c.GBP 30bn; Costs: targeting total Group operating expenses of c.GBP 17.0bn and a Group cost: income ratio of high 50s in percentage terms. This includes total gross efficiency savings of c.GBP 2bn by 2026; Impairment: expect an LLR of 50-60bps through the cycle; Capital: expect to operate within the CET1 ratio target range of 13-14%; Targeting IB RWAs of c.50% of Group RWAs in 2026; Impact of regulatory change on RWAs in line with prior guidance, expected to be at lower end of 5-10% of Group RWAs. This includes c.GBP 16bn RWAs expected in H224 due to USCB moving to Internal Ratings-Based models

Returns: targeting RoTE of greater than 10% and c.10.5% excluding inorganic activity; Income: targeting Barclays Group NII excluding IB and Head Office of c.GBP 10.7bn, of which Barclays UK NII of c.GBP 6.1bn; Costs: targeting Group cost: income ratio of c.63%, which includes c.GBP 1bn of gross efficiency savings in 2024; Impairment: expect an LLR of 50-60bps through the cycle; Capital: expect to operate within the CET1 ratio target range of 13-14%.