UBS analyst Steven Fisher lowered his price target on Caterpillar to $178 from $190 after the company's remark that Q1 would likely be the "high water mark" for 2018. The analyst believes the remark was misinterpreted by the market as a bearish message implying the cycle is at a peak. However, in reality, it was meant to communicate that Q1 would be the strongest of the year, not the cycle, said Fisher. He raised his estimates for both 2018 and 2019 and reiterated his Buy rating on Caterpillar shares.
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Still does not expect significant change in machine dealer inventory compared to 2023. Still expects 2024 full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be in the top half of the updated target range relative to the expected corresponding level of sales and revenues. Still expects 2024 full-year ME&T free cash flow to be in the top half of the updated target range. Still anticipates another year of services growth.
Sees Q2 dealer inventories of machines down year-over-year. Expects Q2 price realization to remain favorable vs, last year. Sees Q2 adjusted operating profit margin similar to 2Q23. Guidance taken from Q1 investor presentation slides.
Reports Q1 revenue $15.8B, consensus $16.04B. "I'm pleased with our team's performance that resulted in higher adjusted operating profit margin, record adjusted profit per share and strong ME&T free cash flow. Our strong balance sheet and ME&T free cash flow allowed us to deploy a record $5.1 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter," said Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby. "We continue to execute our strategy for long-term profitable growth."