William Blair analyst Lawrence De Maria lowered his 2019 earnings per share estimate for Caterpillar to $11.25 from $12.30 and 2020 estimate to $10.75 from $12.60. The consensus estimates for 2019 and 2020 are $11.80 and $12.14, respectively. The analyst sees Caterpillar shares trading in a roughly $110 to $120 range, with potential for "further downside should inventory not be corrected and the market weakens further." The North American construction market has weakened and further production cuts are probably necessary to align to retail demand, De Maria tells investors in a research note. This is due to a combination of weak construction data, cyclical peaks in key end markets, and to a lesser extent, the ongoing trade war, says the analyst. He keeps a Market Perform rating on Caterpillar ahead of the company's Q3 results on October 23. The company typically sets the tone for the earnings season "which is unlikely to be positive," says De Maria.