Citi analyst James Naklicki says U.S. commercial pricing improved sequentially and that he expect trends to stabilize in 2019. The analyst moved Chubb (CB) to his top pick for 2019 in Insurance - Property & Casualty, which he notes is an "out of consensus view." Chubb is a "very defensive stock, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and the P&C sector during financial crisis in 2008," Naklicki tells investors in a research note. He thinks there could be upside to consensus expectations as interest rates rise. Plus, the analyst expects Chubb to generate over $5B in cash in 2019, "with only about half of that being deployed back to shareholders through dividend and share repurchase." For RenaissanceRe (RNR), Naklicki sees a 2% decline in U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance pricing in 2019 serving as a negative catalyst.