Oppenheimer analyst Mohan Naidu says his survey of 49 C-level executives in hospital systems shows a high inclination toward risk-based contracting. The current level of at-risk lives is expected to grow about 2.5 times to 33% in the next five years, he notes. While at-risk programs are led by managed Medicaid contracts today, the analyst sees upside for Medicare next-generation ACOs, given recent commentary from Washington around two-sided risk. Naidu believes the expectations of increasing mix of at-risk lives will be a tailwind for pop health solutions vendors such as Cerner (CERN), Evolent Health (EVH) and Premier (PINC).