Citi analyst Jason Bazinet said he suspects about 30% of Charter's (CHTR) 80% advance since June of last year is due primarily to M&A speculation, but his analysis leads him to believe the stock could rally to $478 even without multiple expansion or M&A. To arrive at his conclusion, Bazinet placed 80% odds on Charter benefiting from some form of U.S. tax reform, a 40% chance that the company tiers Viacom (VIAB) and a 20% chance that it drops Viacom entirely. Bazinet raised his price target on Charter to $456 from $378 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.