Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth reinstated Cliffs Natural with an Underperform and a $2 price target primarily due to a bearish view on iron ore.

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The Company maintained all of its previously guided expectations for the full-year 2024, including: Steel shipment volumes of 16.5 million net tons; Year-over-year steel unit cost reductions of approximately $30 per net ton, corresponding to an approximate $500 million Adjusted EBITDA benefit compared to 2023; and Capital expenditures of $675M to $725M.

Reports Q1 revenue $5.20B, consensus $5.35B. Cliffs' Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said: "Our first quarter results were highlighted by the resiliency of automotive production in the United States, which helped to offset a temporary buyers strike from service centers in January and February. With more automotive and less service center business, first quarter mix was richer than originally anticipated, driving both our average selling prices and production costs higher than expected. In the first quarter, we returned capital to our shareholders at an aggressive rate. Our stock was cheap throughout the quarter and remains so, driving the exhaustion of our previous $1 billion share repurchase authorization and the commencement of another larger one. Buying our own stock is clearly a better use of capital than any M&A opportunities at current valuations -- so that's our primary focus. This quarter, our efforts towards green steel production were recognized in an unprecedented way. As a result of our strong track record with emissions reductions and labor relations, we became the largest intended recipient of federal grants toward decarbonization in the history of the United States. These investments will go toward two game-changing projects, not only with immense carbon reduction prospects, but also robust returns and manageable capital commitments. Looking forward, we expect to benefit in Q2 from the lower costs under our guidance, which we have maintained. Our largest end market, the automotive sector, is expected to remain strong. Orders from our service center customers have started to increase, with spot pricing also on the upswing. We are fortunate to have such a remarkable partnership with our workforce, and we will navigate this world of abundant opportunities together with our union partners."

Pre-earnings options volume in Cleveland-Cliffs is normal with calls leading puts 8:5. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 6.0%, or $1.26, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 6.5%.