Maxim analyst Stephen Anderson contends that Chipotle management maintaining its 2017 guidance for a high-single-digit increase in comp sales was the most important takeaway from the company's earnings report and he believes its recovery is still on track despite the recent isolated norovirus incident. Anderson, who views the recent pullback in shares as an opportunity for investors, keeps a Buy rating on Chipotle, though he lowered his price target to $435 from $470.
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For 2024, management is anticipating the following: Full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range; 285 to 315 new restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane. An estimated underlying effective full year tax rate between 25% and 27% before discrete items.
Reports Q1 revenue $2.7B, consensus $2.67B. Comparable restaurant sales increased 7.0%. "We had another outstanding quarter driven by our improvement in throughput and successful marketing initiatives, including Braised Beef Barbacoa and Chicken Al Pastor, which drove strong sales and transactions. The results we are seeing from our focus on developing exceptional people, preparing delicious food and fast throughput gives me confidence that we can achieve our long-term target of more than doubling our business in North America and expanding internationally," said Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO, Chipotle.
Pre-earnings options volume in Chipotle is 1.5x normal with puts leading calls 9:7. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 5.3%, or $154.14, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 7.0%.