Deutsche Bank analyst Chad Dillard says his channel checks with several dealers left him thinking that Deere might be later in the cycle than it appears. Large agriculture volumes will be flat in 2019 versus expectations of a modest increase, used combine inventories are ticking up again and farmer sentiment has softened, Dillard tells investors in a research note. With this backdrop, the analyst expects Deere to "guide conservatively" into 2019. With the shares trading at a 31% premium to its peers, the market "appears off-side on this stock going into earnings," Dillard writes. While he's "tactically cautious" over the near term, he views Deere's risk/reward as balanced over the longer term. The analyst keeps a Hold rating on the shares.