JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe believes fundamentals in the Casual Dining space have not improved as much as the current stock prices suggest. He recommends fading the rally across the sector, even the names he rates Overweight. Ivankoe has Neutral ratings on Darden (DRI), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) and Fogo De Chao (FOGO) and Overweight ratings on Brinker (EAT) and Bloomin' Brands (BLMN). Supply growth in the Casual Dining space is increasing across the industry faster than demand while commodity cost benefits are moderating, Ivankoe tells investors in a research note.

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Brinker to $50 from $48 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. After a weather impaired January and February, the firm had hoped for a mid-quarter acceleration in restaurant industry same-store sales growth, but "trends remained lackluster," the analyst tells investors in a Q1 preview for the group. The firm estimates fast food industry same-store sales growth of 1.5% in Q1 and a casual dining segment same-store sales decline of 1%, noting that it recently lowered top-line forecasts for much of its coverage because of the sluggish trends lately.