As previously reported, MKM Partners analyst John Gerdes has downgraded EOG Resources (EOG), EQT Corp (EQT) and Hess Corp (HES) from Buy to Neutral on valuation after their respective 17%, 14%, and 62% year-to-date gains relative to the 14% appreciation of the Oil/Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). The analyst notes that all 3 now reflect below 10% of his expected intrinsic upside value relative to his net present value-derived estimates. As part of his broader research note, Gerdes has also raised his 2019 Brent crude oil price forecast by $9 to $66 and his 2020 forecast by $2.50 to $64.50. The analyst adds that the capital intensity in the industry has been "stable" and remains 35% below 2014 cyclical peak while the cost structure is 35% below the 2014 peak.

Reports Q1 revenue $1.41B, consensus $1.56B. President and CEO Toby Z. Rice stated, "The strong operational momentum we achieved last year has carried over into 2024, with our drilling team continuing to perform at exceptional levels, and our completions team again setting a new company record for pumping hours in the month of March. We also saw LOE come in below our forecast, as the benefits of our strategic water infrastructure investments are becoming increasingly tangible to shareholders. These factors contributed to free cash flow generation coming in above internal expectations and we exited the quarter in a strong financial position with nearly $650M of cash on the balance sheet."

Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Hess Corp. to $164 from $156 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its estimates for their E&P sector by lowereing natual gas assumptions and maintaining oil prices. For 2024, they expect companies will continue their maintenance capital programs, while focusing on driving improving well productivity. Susquehanna also expects M&A activity to continue as companies look to shore up inventory positions.