Stifel analyst Annabel Samimy said her survey of 50+ physicians in late June lead her to now believe that new toxins could have penetrations that exceed her current market-share estimates. The survey bodes well for Evolus (EOLS) in the near-term and for both Evolus and Revance (RVNC) in the longer-term while also indicating that Allergan's (AGN) Botox franchise may be more vulnerable than previously thought, Samimy tells investors. She previously had Evolus' Jeuveau reaching a peak market share of 15% and Revance's DaxibotulinumtoxinA reaching 20% shares by 2027, but her new "base case" assumes that Jeuveau peaks at 20% share and Daxi peaks at 25%, noted Samimy, who took down her Botox market share forecast for 2027 to 50%. Samimy raised her price target on Evolus shares to $33 from $30 and keeps a $50 price target on Revance while maintaining Buy ratings on both stocks.

The company states: "Evolus announced that the Aesthetic Surgery Journal has published the safety and duration of effect results from the Phase 2 study of 40U Jeuveau(R) (prabotulinumtoxinA-xvfs) for the treatment of moderate to severe glabellar lines in adult patients. The "extra-strength" glabellar line study is a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, Phase 2 trial following 150 patients for up to 12 months or until the patient loses their correction. The study has three arms: Jeuveau(R) Extra-Strength 40U and two active controls, BOTOX(R) 20U and Jeuveau(R) 20U. Efficacy results demonstrated 26 weeks, or 6 months duration across the multiple metrics presented, including the time it took for patients to return to their baseline GLS score after their treatment, the duration of effect for a patient with at least a one-point GLS improvement, and the time it took a patient to return to their baseline using the Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale. The safety profile was similar across all three arms and overall, 88.9% of adverse events were rated as mild and no serious adverse events were identified."