RBC Capital analyst Glenn Novarro estimates that there is a 70% chance of interim data showing that Medtronic's (MDT) CoreValve and CoreValve Evolut R are non-inferior to surgery and a 30% chance of the devices being shown to be superior to surgery. The analyst thinks that Edwards Lifesciences' stock will fall around 5% if the devices are shown to be non-inferior, and he believes that the stock will rise 5%-10% if it shown to be superior. However, the analyst believes that even a finding of non-inferiority will increase TAVR devices' market share, and he recommends buying Edwards on any pullback.

Sees Q2 revenue $1.62B-$1.7B, consensus $1.64B.

Reports Q1 revenue $1.6B, consensus $1.57B. "Edwards is positioned to extend our leadership and deliver sustainable growth as a result of the strategic investments we have made across our transcatheter platforms to address the large and growing needs of patients impacted by aortic, mitral and tricuspid disease. We are pleased with our total company performance with first quarter sales growth of 10% as more patients were treated with our innovative therapies," said Bernard Zovighian, CEO. "This encouraging start to the year supports our increased 2024 sales guidance. Looking beyond 2024, we remain confident in Edwards' innovation-driven strategy, led by new indications, differentiated technologies and strategic adjacencies for addressing the significant unmet needs of structural heart disease patients."

Pre-earnings options volume in Edwards Lifesciences is 5.5x normal with puts leading calls 10:7. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 4.8%, or $4.27, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 6.3%.