Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker is cautious on FedEx shares ahead of the company's Q4 report on June 25, along with which he believes the company is likely to issue FY20 guidance. Though the Q4 results "will be important," Shankar, who is expecting a miss, believes the stock will most likely react to guidance. He puts 50% odds that the company issues FY20 EPS guidance of about $16 ex-TNT costs, which compares to current consensus of $16.76. In this scenario, Shankar sees about 7% downside for the stock. He sees a 30% chance of FY20 EPS guidance of close to $15, in which case he sees about 13% downside for FedEx shares. Shanker attributes 20% odds that FedEx issues FY20 EPS guidance of close to $17, in which case he predicts about 4% upside to see the stock trade near $180 per share. Ahead of the report, Shanker keeps an Equal Weight rating and $148 price target on FedEx shares.