BofA/Merrill analyst Brian Lee says that despite the strong year-to-date outperformance across the group, he would lean into solar stocks heading into Q4 earnings as he sees momentum likely to persist for stocks that can beat, namely First Solar (FLSR) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ). Fundamentally, the analyst expects a much more constructive tone from companies heading into 2019, and sees both companies as best positioned to beat given First Solar's better margins and Canadian Solar's project sales that consensus is not capturing. On the flipside, Lee reiterates a Sell rating on SolarEdge (SEDG), which he sees as having the highest idiosyncratic risk and lower estimates owing to recent M&A that appears both dilutive and a key investor focus point.

Wells Fargo notes that a group of seven domestic solar product makers, including First Solar (FSLR), filed a petition to levy anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, looking for duties ranging from 70.4% to 271.5%. The firm, which included the "important reminder" that "this is just a petition," says the uncertainty created by the petition is "incrementally positive" for First Solar and negative for Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Array Technologies (ARRY) and Nextracker (NXT).

As previously reported, Evercore ISI analyst Sean Morgan upgraded First Solar to Outperform from In Line with an unchanged price target of $227. The market is expecting the Biden administration to remove a trade exemption for bifacial solar modules imported to the U.S., which now represent about 98% of U.S. solar imports, the analyst noted. Solar panel imports skyrocketed in 2023 to 54GW and some market participants have stated that reliance on imports and oversupply are negatively impacting solar domestic factories, which have been a priority for the current U.S. administration, putting pressure on greater U.S. trade protections and policy support, the analyst added.

Evercore ISI analyst Sean Morgan upgraded First Solar to Outperform from In Line with a $227 price target.

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B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on SolarEdge to $124 from $133 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q1 report. With high interest rates and channel dynamics impacting the solar industry, resulting in uncertainty and low visibility around growth, B. Riley continues to advocate for solar/storage ownership models, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views Altus Power (AMPS) and HASI (HASI) as its top ideas for the rest of 2024. These are the best two ways to play the space and have higher growth visibility in a challenging macro environment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.