Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani attributes the underperformance in Defense stocks over the last two days compared to the broader market to heightened concerns around a month old proposal from the Department of Defense to adjust progress and performance payments down to 50% from 80% of cost, which would effectively slow the timing of cash flow receipts closer to when a project is complete. He sees a number of reasons not to panic, firstly because he believes that the Administration will not move forward with a proposal industry-players will paint as being anti-business and anti-defense spending. Even if it were to move forward, the proposal primarily impacts cash flow timing, with underlying earnings unchanged and potential offsets evident, Lalwani tells investors. Lastly, while there would be considerable uncertainty around rule implementation, the proposal would create a path to superior cash flows versus today, the analyst added. Companies in the defense contracting space include General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls (HII), L3 Technologies (LLL), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Raytheon (RTN).

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on General Dynamics to $320 from $325 after its Q1 earnings miss but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's revenue growth was driven by double-digit growth in Combat Systems, Marine Systems, and Aerospace, but while the management provided cautious comments on Q2 earnings and free cash flow, the set-up into the second half remains "very favorable", the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds that it continues to see capital allocation as a key catalyst for General Dynamics.

Says "pleased with cash performance" in Q1. Expects strong cash generation in Q2. Says "committed" to "strong and growing dividend." Remains "upbeat" on long-term prospects.

Says strong global defense budget outlook; broad portfolio well aligned to customer priorities; robust long-term cash flow outlook. Expects greater than $2B in share repurchases in 2024. Says "laser focused" on performance, driving cost efficiencies in the business. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call.

For 2024 sees: Aeronautics Systems sales mid $11B, OM rate mid 9%; Defense Systems sales ~ $6B, OM rate low to mid 12%; Missions Systems sales low to mid $11B, OM rate high 14%; Space Systems sales low to mid $14B, OM rate ~9%; Eliminations ~($2.3B), OM rate high 13%. Prior view: Aeronautics Systems sales low $11B, OM rate mid 9%; Defense Systems sales ~ $6B, OM rate low 12%; Missions Systems sales low to mid $11B, OM rate ~ 15%; Space Systems sales mid to high $14B, OM rate ~9%; Eliminations ~($2.3B), OM rate high 13%. Comments taken from investor presentation slides. Comments taken from investor presentation slides.

Backs FY24 free cash flow view $2.25B-$2.65B.

FY24 consensus $24.65. Backs FY24 revenue view $40.8B-$41.2B, consensus $41.11B.

Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on Lockheed Martin to $487 from $467 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company reported solid Q1 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while the Street mis-modeling the extra week played a part in this quarter's outperformance versus sell-side estimates, "there were also pockets of fundamental outperformance." It sees upside to full-year sales estimates.

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Reports Q1 revenue $10.7B, consensus $10.32B. "Our businesses delivered solid operating results in the quarter, growing revenue and backlog, while expanding margins, even as we awaited G700 certification," said Phebe N. Novakovic, chairman and chief executive officer. "In the Aerospace segment, the recent FAA certification of the Gulfstream G700 has enabled us to begin customer deliveries. This is a strong start to 2024 and we remain confident in our outlook."