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Fly News Breaks for November 10, 2015
GWPH
Nov 10, 2015 | 08:25 EDT
Ahead of the results from the first Epidiolex Phase 3 study in Q1 of 2016, Leerink analyst Paul Matteis lays out his bull/bear cases for shares of GW Pharmaceuticals. Matteis sees four scenarios on the first Dravet Phase 3 data, which assumes the market is pricing in a 60% probability-of-success and perceives the first Phase 3 result as a surrogate for the program. He estimates 65% share upside on study success and greater than 30% effect size, 45% upside on study success and greater than 20% effect size, 40% downside if the effect size is in high teens and results are close to but miss statistical significance, and 80% downside on a small or negligible Epidiolex effect. The analyst believes the Phase 3 Epidiolex trials in Dravet/Lennox Gastaut syndrome are likely to succeed and he continues to model a 66% approval probability. Matteis has an Outperform rating on GW Pharmaceuticals with a $135 price target. The stock closed yesterday up $3.47 to $85.37.
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