Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Grambling downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) to Neutral from Buy while raising his price target for the shares to $37 from $35. While leveraged buyout internal rate of returns could be attractive to $40 per share or higher, other names in the Lodging space offer better risk-adjusted returns, Grambling tells investors in a research note. The analyst's estimates remain below management's long-term earnings target and consensus in fiscal 2021 as he anticipates a slower sell-through of owned inventory. The delayed sell-through is likely to also postpone any free cash flow inflection and raise Hilton Grand Vacations' earnings risk in the near term in the event of any macro deterioration, contends Grambling. The analyst this morning also upgraded Hyatt Hotels (H) to Buy from Neutral and reiterated Buy ratings on Marriott (MAR), Hilton (HLT) and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH). Marriott is on his firm's Conviction List.

Truist analyst C. Patrick Scholes raised the firm's price target on Hilton to $209 from $199 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings beat. The company reported "powerful" earnings earnings growth in spite of the "choppy" RevPAR macro backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds however that while it continues to view Hilton's business model as among the best-in-class, it is retaining its Hold rating as it sees the stock being "fairly valued at a premium valuation".

Macquarie raised the firm's price target on Hilton to $205 from $192 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following what the firm calls "another strong EBITDA beat" in Q1. Management also increased its 2024 EBITDA guidance, notes the firm, which still awaits a better entry point.

Reports Q1 revenue $304M, consensus $308.26M. Global RevPAR grew 1% in constant currency and ancillary revenues grew 8% compared to Q1 2023. "We're thrilled to announce another strong quarter of progress in our executions, openings, franchisee retention and net room growth around the world," said CEO Geoff Ballotti. "Increased interest from hotel owners in our brands has propelled our development pipeline to a record 243,000 rooms, marking an impressive 8% increase. Our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation capabilities provide significant opportunity to continue to enhance returns to our shareholders over both the short and long-term, as evidenced by our Board of Directors' approval of a $400M increase in our share repurchase authorization."

Reports Q1 revenue $2.573, consensus $2.55B. Q1 system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 2.0%, on a currency neutral basis, compared to the same period in 2023. Christopher J. Nassetta, President & CEO, said, "We are pleased to report a strong first quarter with bottom line results meaningfully exceeding our expectations, further demonstrating the power of our resilient, fee-based business model and strong development story. During the first quarter, system-wide RevPAR increased 2.0 percent as renovations, inclement weather and unfavorable holiday shifts weighed on performance more than anticipated. On the development side, we continued to see great momentum across signings, starts and openings. As a result of our record pipeline and the growth pace we've seen to-date, we expect net unit growth of 6.0%-6.5% for the full year, excluding the planned acquisition of the Graduate Hotels brand."