William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia believes Harley-Davidson's domestic retail sales trends remained soft in Q4, even as the company began to lap currency-related discounting by competitors that began late last year. The analyst expects a low-single-digit decline in retail sales growth in the U.S., which will mark the fifth straight quarter of retail sales declines. Zackfia sees Harley's 2016 production growth guidance being cut to 1%-2% from 3%-5%. Despite lowering the company's 2016 earnings estimate, the analyst thinks shares have limited downside risk from current levels. Zackfia keeps an Overweight rating on the name.

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Harley-Davidson continues to expect: HDMC revenue flat to down 9% and operating income margin of 12.6%-13.6%, HDFS operating income flat to up 5%, LiveWire electric motorcycle unit sales of 1,000 to 1,500 and Harley-Davidson capital investments of $225M-$250M.

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