As previously reported, Longbow downgraded Harley-Davidson to Underperform from Neutral. with a $40 price target. Analyst David MacGregor's dealer checks indicate wholesale shipments at the low end of the guidance range. Dealers said inventory continued to rise during July/August and financing promotions ended in mid-August leaving no promotions to clear inventory before mid-year 2017 shipments. MacGregor expects an increasingly competitive market environment in addition to to internal initiatives with higher levels of investment and margin headwinds, and does not see a positive catalyst for shares over the next 18 months.

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Harley-Davidson continues to expect: HDMC revenue flat to down 9% and operating income margin of 12.6%-13.6%, HDFS operating income flat to up 5%, LiveWire electric motorcycle unit sales of 1,000 to 1,500 and Harley-Davidson capital investments of $225M-$250M.

Notable companies reporting before tomorrow's open, with earnings consensus, include Merck (MRK), consensus $1.87... Caterpillar (CAT), consensus $5.14... Comcast (CMSCA), consensus 99c... Honeywell (HON), consensus $2.17... Bristol-Myers (BMY), consensus ($4.44)... Altria (MO), consensus $1.15... Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), consensus 35c... GE Vernova (GEV), consensus (37c)... Royal Caribbean (RCL), consensus $1.33... Tractor Supply (TSCO), consensus $1.72... Mobileye (MBLY), consensus (6c)... Textron (TXT), consensus $1.23... LabCorp (LH), consensus $3.48... Southwest Airlines (LUV), consensus (34c)... American Airlines (AAL), consensus (29c)... Harley-Davidson (HOG), consensus $1.51.

Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of Harley-Davidson with an Overweight rating and $50 price target. Harley-Davidson is an iconic brand with leading market share in the U.S. motorcycle industry and "a fiercely loyal customer base," says the analyst, who believes a refocused strategy under new leadership, along with strong capital allocation discipline, will lead to upside to consensus earnings estimates.