Wells Fargo analyst Timothy Conder downgraded Harley-Davidson to Market Perform from Outperform but raised his price target to $41 from $40, saying he believes risk/reward is now less attractive at current levels amid continued heavyweight motorcycle market weakness, tariff uncertainty and a "long" path to stabilization. Large heavyweight motorcycles, regardless of brand, remain challenged with ongoing new/used pricing and supply dynamics and a structural shift towards mid-size and smaller units, Conder says, adding that he believes Harley-Davidson's plans for mid-sized and small bikes, growing ridership and bringing in younger demographics to the brand and international expansion, collectively should provide a meaningful growth opportunity over time.
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Harley-Davidson continues to expect: HDMC revenue flat to down 9% and operating income margin of 12.6%-13.6%, HDFS operating income flat to up 5%, LiveWire electric motorcycle unit sales of 1,000 to 1,500 and Harley-Davidson capital investments of $225M-$250M.
Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of Harley-Davidson with an Overweight rating and $50 price target. Harley-Davidson is an iconic brand with leading market share in the U.S. motorcycle industry and "a fiercely loyal customer base," says the analyst, who believes a refocused strategy under new leadership, along with strong capital allocation discipline, will lead to upside to consensus earnings estimates.