Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren likes the risk/reward on Incyte shares into the topline results from the Phase III GRAVITAS-301 trial evaluating itacitinib in steroid-naive acute graft versus host disease, which are expected by year-end. The analyst has a "fairly high level of conviction" in the impending readout. If positive, he estimates itacitinib is worth $13-$14 per share. Additionally, most people do not have itacitinib fully-reflected in their models and the shares should be up more on a positive outcome than they would be down with negative results, Van Buren tells investors in a research note. He keeps an Overweight rating on Incyte with a $95 price target.