Jefferies expects the Paper & Packaging group to open lower after PPW cut May linerboard and medium prices in the West Coast by $10 and $20 per ton, respectively. The firm calls the move "somewhat surprising" and expects sentiment to remain negative until inventory returns to a more normalized level. Jefferies thinks the earnings impact from the price cuts for International Paper (IP), RockTenn (RKT) and Packaging Corp. (PKG) will be modest, however.

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The company states: "Looking ahead as we move from the first and into the second quarter. In our Packaging segment we expect continued strong demand and higher corrugated products and containerboard shipments. Prices and mix will move higher due to our announced price increases and the increase in published domestic index prices, as well as higher export prices. Orders in our Paper segment are expected to remain strong however, volume will be lower due to a scheduled maintenance outage at our International Falls, MN mill during the quarter. Although we are implementing our recently announced paper price increases, average prices and mix are expected to be slightly lower due to the published decrease in index prices earlier this year and how that impacts contract triggers with certain customers. Operating and converting costs should be slightly lower primarily due to the sequential improvement in seasonal weather and wage and benefit timing expenses that we incurred in the first quarter, and scheduled maintenance outage expenses will be lower. Rail rate increases at six of our mills during the first and second quarters will result in higher freight and logistics expenses, and depreciation expense will be higher. Finally, our tax rate will be sequentially higher due to the tax-related benefit of share-based compensation vests in the first quarter. Considering these items, we expect second quarter earnings of $2.07 per share."

Reports Q1 revenue $2.0B, consensus $1.91B. Commenting on reported results, Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO, said, "Throughout the quarter, containerboard and corrugated products demand exceeded our expectations. We were able to service this higher demand from strong operational performance at our box plants and containerboard mills as well as from excellent execution of the conversion outage at our Jackson, AL mill which enabled us to restart both machines earlier than planned. Despite these efforts, with the higher demand, we ended the quarter at a record low weeks-of-inventory supply for this time of year. Prices and mix in the Packaging segment moved slightly higher from fourth quarter 2023 levels, although less than we anticipated due to our total announced increase not being recognized in the published benchmark prices. Volume in the Paper segment was very good at about 13% above guidance estimates, and an improved mix moved prices slightly higher from the previous quarter, as expected. In addition, during the quarter we announced a price increase of $100 per ton across all of our paper grades, and we began implementing these increases on April 1st. The strong volume in both the Packaging and Paper segments along with the continued emphasis on cost management and process efficiencies across our manufacturing and converting facilities drove operating and converting costs lower, even with the persistent inflation we continue to experience across most of our cost structure."