CLSA downgraded the Macau sector given disappointing run rates year-to-date and expectations for more negative newsflow. The firm said the anti-corruption campaign continues to pressure VIP and premium mass customer visits. CLSA now expects 2015 EBITDA growth of -26%, lowered its view of VIP growth to -32% from -14%, reduced mass growth to -17% from -2%, and now expects new Cotai projects ROIC to average only +18, down from +35% previously. As part of the sector view change, the firm downgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to Outperform from Buy.

Seaport Research initiated coverage of Wynn Resorts with a Neutral rating and no price target. The firm initiated coverage on the global casinos and gaming industry with its initial work focused on the three global U.S. casino operators and the six operators in Macau. The group has generally underperformed the broader market even while fundamentals in Macau continue ramp up strongly following three years of COVID shutdowns and 2024 is set to deliver positive growth in revenue and profitability, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says there are headwinds for the U.S. casino industry due to uncertainty around the economic slowdown. It expects Macau to deliver strong results in 2024 and into 2025, while the U.S. industry will potentially see some headwinds that could limit growth relative to last year. However, the longer term secular prospects for both Asia and the U.S. look strong, says Seaport. Its top pick on valuation is Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO). Its top pick overall based on risk/reward and fundamental outlook is Las Vegas Sands (LVS).