Barclays analyst Felicia Hendrix downgraded Mattel (MAT) to Underweight from Equal Weight and cut her price target for the shares to $13 from $16. The analyst maintains an Overweight rating on Hasbro (HAS) while trimming her target for the stock to $100 from $110. Mattel faces downside risk from the potential Toys R Us liquidation, Hendrix tells investors in a research note. The company generates 8% of its sales from Toys R Us and its shares are up 4% since reporting earnings on February 1, the analyst notes. She believes sell-side estimates for both Mattel and Hasbro likely only include the closure of 182 Toys R Us U.S. stores. The analyst finds Hasbro's risk/reward more favorable at current share levels.

BofA analyst Alexander Perry raised the firm's price target on Mattel to $26 from $25 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported Q1 losses that were ahead of the firm's forecast on significant gross margin upside. Following the report, the firm is raising its calendar 2024 EPS forecast to $1.44 from $1.40, which reflects a 2% sales increase in Q2 as Mattel laps channel destocking from last year, a 3% decline in sales in Q3 given tough Barbie comps, and relatively flat Q4 sales given expected share gains and shelf expansion for key brands at retail through holiday.

In an interview on CNBC's Mad Money, Ynon Kreiz said Mattel has a very clear strategy to grow its IP-driven toy business. The priority is "first and foremost" to drive organic growth. He "couldn't be more excited" with Barbie's growth trajectory.

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Sees FY24 free cash flow $500M. Says has more than $1.1B in cash. Says bent portfolio well positioned with no maturities until 2026. Says trends in consumer demand for product improved through the quarter and expects to outpace the industry and gain market share in 2024. Says retail inventory levels have been largely corrected. Says now at appropriate levels to support the business going forward. Comments taken from Q1 earnings conference call and investor presentation slides.

Reports Q1 revenue $810M, consensus $831.8M. Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO of Mattel, said: "We are off to a good start to the year with significant gross margin expansion, positive Adjusted EBITDA, and very strong improvement in free cash flow. Trends in consumer demand for our product improved through the quarter and we expect to outpace the industry and gain market share in 2024. We are executing our strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering." Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO of Mattel, added: "We achieved strong bottom-line results, primarily driven by margin expansion, repurchased $100 million of shares in the quarter, and are on track to meet our full year guidance. We expect to continue to benefit from the Optimizing for Profitable Growth program, which is targeting $60 million in cost savings in 2024 and a total of $200 million in cost savings by 2026."