Nomura analyst Mark Kalinowski lowered Q4 and Q1 US comp estimates for McDonald's following recent a recent franchisee survey. The analyst lowered hisQ4 US same-store sales forecast by 70bp, to -1.2%, versus consensus of down 1.4%, blaming an adverse December, mainly blaming the weather. In addition, he lowered Q1 US same-store sales forecasts by 240bp, to down 1.9%, versus consensus of down .6%. Based on these changes, and also currencies that continue to move against McDonald's, Kalinowski lowered his full-year 2016 and full-year 2017 earnings estimates by 2c 4c, respectively, to $5.71 and $6.19. Based on the lower base of anticipated earnings coming off of 2017, he also reduced our full-year 2018 earnings forecast by 4c, to $6.79. The analyst retains his Buy rating on McDonald's and lowered its price target to $136 from $137 and said he does not view winter weather as an especially worrisome issue from a 12-month outlook perspective.